Orange Dad

GM 😀 ☕ 👊

Just got the "Target Price Buy Order Executed" email.

Have a great day!

#bitcoin

I've had a stressful afternoon, and then I remembered how great this news is.

Thanks

for what you do. So glad this is the outcome.

#opensource #bitcoin

GM 😀☕️👊

Just talked to the barista about accepting bitcoin and I used the savings calculator I made - first time using it in the wild, what’s was neat.

“I’m surprised it’s not more.” 😂 Totally fair. Only $11 in yearly savings if I got a coffee weekly.

And only $240 a year if two people a day get a coffee and pastry.

This pace is inexpensive - $3.75 coffee and $8-$9 for a coffee and pastry - so at the average places in the area it’s be more.

But he’s going to South America and he’s going to do some more research. So net positive interaction.

Drip by drip.

#bitcoin #merchantadoption

https://orangedaddocs.github.io/square-bitcoin-savings-calculator/

I'd rather have sats than any of these, but this is interesting...

June 2024 to June 2026 - first picture.

But what about when bitcon was $1,000? November 2013 to June 2026 in the second image. To me that's much more honest than going back to any time earlier, when most people hadn't heard about it. And it's so clean. If you had $1,000 and went all in you'd have 100 million sats.

Now let's say you went back 5 years, to June 2021...

But if you waited to buy in November of 2021 the story is different - you bought the high.

If you bought four years ago you're up 32.5%

Glad I stacked today, and glad I got to pay with sats for my coffee and burrito this morning.

#bitcoin

GM 😀 ☕ 👊

Today is my "satsbirthday" - I bought my first sats two years. I'm late to the game, but so glad to be here. Bought some sats this morning to celebrate and grateful that they are on sale.

Have a great day!

#bitcoin #classof2024

I made something that I think will help me when I’m trying to get merchants to accept Bitcoin on their Square Terminal.

I struck out pretty hard at my local coffee shop yesterday. Total non-starter. I’ll write about that separately.

But it made me realize something:

I didn’t have a simple way to show the owner what my weekly coffee habit would save them in card fees. And then it would be nice - if they're curious - to have them just scan a QR code and read a quick overview of why they can easily accept it, rather than read some flyer...which I tried in the fall.

So I built a simple app that does this.

The default is $10 purchase for 2 times a week.

If somebody spends $10 twice a week at a Square merchant, that is $50 a year on credit card fees the merchant saves.

If somebody buys a $5 coffee every day, the $0.15 Square charges the coffee shop adds up...to the tune of $100 for the year.

The tool is simple - you just put in the sale amount, pick one purchase or repeat visits, and it shows:

• Credit card fee
• Bitcoin fee in 2026
• Bitcoin fee in 2027+
• What a regular customer adds up to over time

At this point we hope we've gotten their attention, and if so, you click the QR code toggle.

The merchant scans it and gets a short page explaining the fees they save, common questions, and links to Square’s resources for turning Bitcoin Payments on.

There is a link to Square's onboarding video. I'm not sure it's been updated, and it's not as quick process, unless one of use is helping them, but again, I might have found an older video.

The merchant will want to know if this gets automatically converted to USD. The docs I found say merchants can receive Bitcoin Payments as USD or BTC, yet recent Square release notes say USD is the default for new sellers, but the video made it look like they had to choose. It'd be great if we could get clarity on that.

The bottom line is for people here care about merchant adoption, and I think this is useful...and not ai slop, but you be the judge.

https://orangedaddocs.github.io/square-bitcoin-savings-calculator/

#merchantadoption #bitcoin

GM 😀 ☕ 👊

I made a thing - part article, part chart, part DCA calculator.

Yes, I know Nostr doesn't need another DCA calculator, but this one isn't really about the calculator - it's about time.

If you believe in the Power Law, we are a long way under the trendline right now.

The page walks through how long it might take to climb back and what stacking an extra $100 through that window actually buys you. It's fun and encouraging to see that the slowest - some would say ugliest - recovery is the one that gives you the most Bitcoin. Obviously you know this, but it's fun to see the chart and math.

You can read it on your phone, but open it on a computer if you want to play with the calculator.

I built it while riding my exercise bike, and then finishing it up at my desk while other AI tools were working. And I used Anthropic's Fable 5 to start this, but last night it just went off line, so I finished it with Opus 4.8.

Here is the bottom line for me: this summer is about hustling and working hard, because there is a window right now where sats are cheaper than the trendline says they are worth.

https://orangedaddocs.github.io/postcard-from-a-low/

#ai #bitcoin #dca

Between 1 and 1.5 million people live within 20 min of

in the Chicago area. What an amazing opportunity for education , not to mention fellowship for the Chicago bitcoiners.

Best of luck to Jon Gordon (

) and all involved in this project.

As

says, “We’re going to win!”

#bitcoin #chicago nostr:nevent1qqsp2qxcnnwmgund952p0rph99qesulue4a9wyz2lzxsldkccmx92zq96u7ge

To me Nostr is gardens, guns and GrapheneOS.

Twitter is posturing, bad takes and an army of bots, but also a couple bitcoin voices I like that aren’t here, and an ocean of AI content that is cutting edge. So I click on both.

Also, Grok is great to search sentiment on a variety of things. I wouldn’t use it for anything else.

is great way to test this for yourself. Spend $5 on credits and ask Grok, Chat GPT 5.5, Claude Opus 5.8, and Kimi the same question, then follow up with more questions and see where you end up. In an hour you’ll know what they’re all good at. Spoiler: none of them are the best in class at all things.

You can pay with #bitcoin!

#ai #nostr #twitter #bitcoin

GM 😀☕️👊

Target buy placed 10 days ago at $68,500 might hit soon.

Have a great day!

#bitcoin

GM 😀 ☕ 👊

I found this bitcoin site last night and it's so good:

https://bennet.org/learn/what-is-bitcoin/

It's got all of these interactive tools that are really great. I don't love the typography but that's a minor issue.

I've got to work quite a bit today, and then attend an end of the school year event, but I can't wait to play with the various tools and read more.

Now we just need to get him on Nostr!

https://bennet.org/learn/what-is-bitcoin/

#bitcoin #proofofwork

Everything in this photo - the steak, the cutting board, the high smoke point cooking Ghee, and the rub - was purchased with sats.

Let’s eat!

#worththesats #circulareconomy #bitcoin

GM 😀 ☕

About to head out the door to take my mom to breakfast. She's 82 and runs 10k road races. She's such a wonderful role model for my kids.

I think what I'm going to do with this as a little project this summer is:

• Similar to Wen Moon, create a calculator that give a guess as to when you can retire on bitcoin, but use the Catch-Up Model. https://observablehq.com/@jimbojw/wen-moon

• Add 3-4 scenarios for inflation - similar to what's in this article - that walks us through the the importance of stacking now. https://primal.net/a/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqs2fpquh4unxgqj8qsk6072zljf3sd7gm8fjql38rje0k2aanf8dqq24wd34g36nq5zz899nyc640p6njmjnwskhyvukqwg

The Catch-Up Model has use getting back to Power Law trendline in June 2028. Just a guess, but it's reasonable.

Anyway, it's a fun project to hone my skills and I use Claude Code and Codex for my business.

Have a great Sunday!

#bitcoin #ai #codex #claudecode

At a minimum, this tool has helped me. I stacked a bit this weekend. I'll still touch grass this summer, but maybe a touch less than in the past.

Have a great Sunday. Headed to see my

I built something I think is useful with Claude Code. It's called Stack Buddy. I don't think it's AI slop, at least I hope not. Link below if you want to check it out.

Here's the back story on it...

I'm starting a new business this year and working 6-7 days a week in what feels like two jobs. I feel like 2026 through 2028 will be an interesting window for two things: using AI to build leverage in my small business, and stacking sats while we're still well below the Power Law trendline.

Stack Buddy is the calculator I wanted for myself to see if I worked my face off, how much I could stack in this period. So I built in between sessions with Claude Code and Codex

The first thing it does is simple: You put in your income, your tax rate, your monthly expenses, and what you're trying to save in fiat, and it tells you how much BTC you can realistically buy each month. Rough numbers are fine.

The second thing is more interesting.

You put in a target stack and a deadline, and it shows you three different paths to get there.

• Flat monthly DCA
• Front-loading heavier early when the price is below trend
• A custom mix of DCA and smash buys.

For the third scenario, you might do 2x your normal DCA on January 1 and July 1 each year, plus a tax-refund buy each April.

The math anchor is what I'm calling the "Catch-Up Power Law." The price today is well below the Power Law trendline, and the question is when we get back to it.

For the price model I ran that question through several AIs looking for the most defensible price guess, and June 30, 2028 came back as the answer with the strongest justification. Obviously I'd hold that date loosely but the calculator needs a concrete anchor and that's the one I'm using.

The model lets you see what your plan looks like under that assumption and stress-test how sensitive your stack is to the timing.

A few things worth knowing before you click through...

• It runs entirely in your browser, doesn't call any LLM, doesn't store your numbers anywhere, and there's no account system.

• The whole thing is open source on GitHub, and there's a download button at the bottom of the app if you want to grab the code, fork it, or run it yourself in Claude Code or Codex.

• And maybe the coolest part, is there's also a prompt you can download and paste into a privacy-respecting LLM like

  npub10hpchee…xkdxkr

  , Venice.ai, or you can wire up

  npub16g4umvw…uekv4h

  API if you want to talk through your plan with an AI rather than just clicking buttons.

I'd love to know what you think and if you have suggestions on improvements I'd love to hear them.

https://orangedaddocs.github.io/stack-buddy/

#bitcoin #stack #stacking #ai #claudecode #codex

GM 😀👊

I don’t know if I can work harder or more hours - long push of 7 days a week through June - but with the price going up to 81k it’s even more motivation to stack this year.

A couple of weeks ago I told a friend who has a bit of bitcoin that the bottom might be in. He thought not. We’ll see.

Have a great day!

#coffeechain #bitcoin

I’m still new enough to bitcoin that paying on chain is still interesting. Maybe it always will be. 🤔

#bitcoin

Tonight we had "fancy goulash" - it has chilli paste that give it an earthy flavor. The ground beef was purchased with bitcoin. I got a 1/4 cow, so I've got steaks and roasts I need to eat up. Just been busy and haven't cooked as much.

The rancher is on the other side of the rocky mountains from me. Seems like a great guy.

#worththesats #circulareconomy #bitcoin

I’ve been working 6-7 days a week for the past 10 weeks. More weeks like this to come. I think I can let up on the gas in July, but I could be wrong. I have a friend who ran 100 mile races in the mountains and he would talk about “all day pace.” I’m trying to dial that in.

There’s a lot I can do to leverage ai, but I think that window will close fastest than I’d like. And I’m not sure the bitcoin price will be 0.6-0.7 power law for years to come. I’m late to this whole Bitcoin thing so I’m mostly happy for it to be at these levels.

Two windows closing faster than I’d like is my general outlook.

What are your thoughts?

#ai #bitcoin

Noting like trying to send a wire to remind you how great bitcoin is.

“You know this transaction is final, correct?”

Aren’t they all?

#bitcoin

GM 😀 👊 ☕

I'm a bit surprised how many people on the left are so happy to see bitcoin dive. For the my guess is the equation is...

Trump = Bad Tump = Crypto Crypto = Bitcoin

I know I live in a bitcoin bubble, but I didn't realize how many people would be so happy about the decline.

Oh well, time to get to work and mine some fiat.

Have a great day!

#coffeechain #bitcoin

Class of 2024 and technically underwater, but trying to figure out how to buy more. I own 6.8% more bitcoin than I did 48 hours ago. 👊

#bitcoin

Thanks

for having these automatic target buys. Make stacking easier. 🙏🏻👊

#stillbullish #bitcoin

Just had to send a wire to pay an invoice and it’s laughable how hard it is and how long I stood there. By the 15 min mark I was thinking that the longer I’m “in bitcoin” the angrier I get at our banking system.

Okay, back to work. 😀👊

#bitcoin

I'd pay for the following:

1. #prepper How To. Other than having a solar power battery, a small generator, some flashlights and sleeping bags and wool blankets, I'm not sure where to begin.

2. #gun #gunstr How To:

• First self defense/home defense firearm - what do get and where to keep it.

• What course to take and how many hours of education/certification are needed.

• If I'm gone, teaching her to use it. Do I get a different gun for her?

Other than shooting a .22 when I was a kid I have no experience.

You could post articles and get zapped for this, but as someone who sells digital education "on the outside" if it were me I'd:

• Code a simple Wordpress website that connect to BTC pay server

• Have someone like me pay via lightening and then have access to the course..

• We read at 250 words per minute and I'd be happy to read articles that take 16-20 min each, so 4k-5k words. I'd read as much as you wanted to share.

This is a great way to get non-KYC sats. You could charge the sats equivalent of $95 for sure and maybe $150. For each one. For me that's a no brainer coming from someone here. I don't have to figure out who to listen to on YT, I just trust a bitcoiner.

Just a thought. I've been thinking about how I can do the same with a course as it's a great way to provide value and get those non-KYC sats.

#asknost #gunstr #gun #prepper #nonkyc #bitcoin #v4v #circulareconomy

I spent 140 min tonight - not that I’m counting 😂 - putting this together.

I’m bullish on articles, if only for a pleb like me to learn how the various clients display them.

I made some HTML mistakes that look different in

than

and that’s interesting. Annoying, but interesting.

If you’re curious how

‘s new Kimi model performs relative to Claude and ChatGPT here it is. And nostr:nprofile1qqsdy27dk8f9qk7qvrm94pkdtus9xtk970jpcp4w48k6cw0khfm06mspp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68ytnzv9hxgtc6lxtrl ‘s Auto model is in here as well.

The bottoms line: Claude is my go to, Kimi is great, and PPQ’s “cost per Perplexity search” is an exceptional value. I should play around with their API integrations, but I don’t have a use case right now.

#ai #bitcoin #merchantadoption #article nostr: nostr:naddr1qq2nx7342ey977349489wazdxd9hs5j2xfgrjqgkwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46qygzpfyyrj7hjveqzguzzmflegt7fxxphervaxgr7yuwt97ethkdya5psgqqqw4rsl7ep77

GM 😀👊☕️

Reading this note by

was a great way to start the day.

“Understanding Bitcoin doesn't mean having arrived. It means having arrived early. And arriving early is uncomfortable: it makes you lonely, exposes you to doubt, forces you to explain things others are not yet willing to hear. Many of those who "understand" don't feel privileged at all. They feel ahead of time — and being early is heavy.”

I feel lucky to have one of their paintings on my wall, and in my profile picture.

#bitcoin #art #artstr

Going through my morning emails. I’m fairly confident someone is lying to me when they say they’re disappointed to hear we won’t be working together this year. I think they’re quite happy.

I need to read Robert Greene’s “The 48 Laws of Power” as soon as work calms down so I have a better sense of what people’s motivations likely are.

I read the “The Daily Pressfield” each morning and it’s a treat. I love all of his nonfiction books.

The two Bitcoin books are on my nightstand but I’m only a few chapters into “Bitcoin One Million.”Thanks to

for recommending “The Blocksize War.” I’ll read it!

#bitcoin #books #bookstr #power

The Big Bitcoin Book by Fred Krueger and Ben Sigman #bitcoin

It’ll be interesting to see where “medium of exchange” goes this year.

There are only a handful of places in my city to accept it six weeks after

and Square made accepting bitcoin easy.

I’m one of two people that use it at the only coffee shop on

that accepts it. And I’m likely not going back because as a middle age man I’m not nearly cool enough for the baristas to serve. 😂

I’ll hope for better adoption in 2026 but I thing MoE is a long way off.

#bitcoin

GM and Happy New Year 😀👊🎉

I hung this up above my dresser yesterday. I saw

‘s work at

I had a big birthdays last year so I got rhia piece, marking before Bitcoin and after.

It’s a daily reminder that I have a chance to mine fiat, and that mining now is crucial for my families future. Obviously this mining is in addition to being useful and kind. I’m blessed that the more useful I am at work the more fiat I mine. I try not to take that for granted.

I can’t wait to see what you and our fellow plebs do in 2026.

#artstr #bitcoin #plebchain

If I had a crystal ball I wouldn’t ask it about bitcoin price in the next 3-36 months, but rather “How is AI going to disrupt my industry in 2026?” And conversely, “What are opportunities that someone like me - who isn’t a developer- can leverage it?”

2026 might not be the year, but sometime soon the U.S. job market is going to be massively disrupted. Gradually and then explosively.

Case in point: Amazon cutting/not needing 600,000 jobs in the next 7 years.

https://medium.com/illumination/amazon-plans-to-avoid-hiring-600-000-workers-by-2033-who-buys-the-products-then-841cde68f249

#ai #bitcoin

What I Learned Running the Same Prompt Through 4 AIs 🤖

Spent time on the stationary bine today building an inflation model for Gen X retirement planning. Ran the identical prompt through Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Kimi. Here's what I learned about how these models think differently.

The task: Build three inflation scenarios (base/bear/bull) for 2026-2045 with probability weights and multipliers showing what $100K today costs in 2040, 2045, 2060.

CLAUDE (my primary)

• Most conservative on Base Case at 3.2%
• Strong on structural reasoning: kept coming back to debt-to-GDP and Fed incentives
• Wanted to stay within "plausible bounds" - refused to model anything above 7% or below 1%
• Best at taking inputs from the other three models and synthesizing them into a coherent framework
• When I pushed back on assumptions, it adjusted thoughtfully rather than just agreeing

CHATGPT

• Most optimistic overall: Base Case only 2.4%, expected rate 2.64%
• Anchored heavily to Fed targets and professional forecaster surveys
• Provided the most citations and links to primary sources (Fed statements, BLS, CBO)
• Clean methodology explanation with all the math shown step by step
• Best at explaining the "official" view of how inflation is measured and why CPI works the way it does

GEMINI

• Most pessimistic: Bear Case at 5.3%, expected rate 3.47%
• Introduced "fiscal dominance" framing that became central to our final model
• Best articulation of why the downside risks are structural, not hypothetical
• Bear Case 2060 multiplier of 5.86x was the scariest number anyone produced
• Really good at stress-testing assumptions and explaining what could go wrong

KIMI (via Maple AI)

• Middle of the pack on the numbers themselves
• Introduced the "personal inflation premium" concept: add 1.75% to CPI for experienced inflation
• This was the most practical innovation of the day - it acknowledges the CPI gap without requiring us to build alternative indices
• Good at framing outputs for actual retirement planning use, not just academic analysis

WHERE THEY AGREED 🤝

• All used 50-55% for Base Case probability
• All put Bull Case at 20% (nobody believes the productivity miracle is likely)
• All structured piecewise rates (near-term higher, long-term normalizing)
• All acknowledged CPI understates lived experience but used it anyway for consistency

WHERE THEY DIVERGED 📊

Base Case rates:

• ChatGPT: 2.4% (optimistic)
• Kimi: 2.8%
• Gemini: 3.0%
• Claude: 3.2% (conservative)

Bear Case rates:

• ChatGPT: 4.0%
• Kimi: 4.5%
• Claude: 4.8%
• Gemini: 5.3% (most aggressive)

The spread on expected 2060 income needed (to match $100K today):

• ChatGPT: $248K
• Kimi: $291K
• Claude: $352K
• Gemini: $352K

WHAT I TOOK FROM THIS 🎯

1. Each AI has a personality, and it shows up in the numbers. ChatGPT trusts institutions and anchors to official forecasts.

Gemini is skeptical and looks for structural risks. Kimi focuses on practical application. Claude tries to find the middle ground. None of them is "wrong" - they're just approaching the same problem from different angles. Running all four gave me a much better sense of the reasonable range than any single model would have.

2. ChatGPT is best when you want the mainstream consensus view.

It cited Fed statements, CBO projections, and professional forecaster surveys. If you need to understand what the official position is, or you want your work to be defensible against institutional criticism, ChatGPT will give you that. The tradeoff is it may be too anchored to what authorities say rather than what's structurally likely.

3. Gemini is the one to use when you want your assumptions stress-tested.

It kept finding reasons why things could go wrong. The "fiscal dominance" framing - where the Fed loses independence because the government can't afford higher rates - was Gemini's contribution, and it became central to our Bear Case. If you're building something important, run it through Gemini and ask "what am I missing?"

4. Kimi surprised me with practical innovation.

The "personal inflation premium" idea - just add 1.75% to CPI rates for your personal planning - was simple and useful. It solved the whole "CPI doesn't match my experience" debate without requiring us to build alternative indices. Sometimes the best insights are frameworks, not numbers.

5. Claude is good at synthesis but needs to be pushed.

My initial Bear Case was 4.8%, which felt too tame after seeing Gemini's 5.3%. When I pushed back, Claude adjusted to 5.0% and explained why. The lesson: don't just accept the first output. The models get better when you engage with them critically.

6. The disagreement itself is valuable information.

When ChatGPT says 2.4% and Gemini says 3.0% for the Base Case, that 60 basis point spread tells you something about the uncertainty in the system. The "right" answer isn't splitting the difference - it's understanding why smart systems disagree and making a judgment call about which reasoning you find more compelling.

7. Probability weights matter more than point estimates.

All four models agreed that the Bear Case deserves 25-30% probability, not 10%. That's nearly one-in-three odds of a bad outcome. When you're planning for a 35-year retirement horizon, one-in-three odds of needing $550K instead of $300K to match today's $100K is not something you can ignore. The expected value masks this risk.

8. None of them pushed back on the premise.

I asked for inflation scenarios, and all four delivered inflation scenarios. None of them said "wait, maybe you should also consider deflation" or "have you thought about currency regime change?" The models are good at answering the question you ask, but they're not great at questioning whether you're asking the right question. That's still your job.

9. Running multiple models takes more time but builds more confidence.

This whole exercise took about 50 minutes of prompting, comparing, and synthesizing. I could have just used Claude and been done in 15 minutes. But I wouldn't have discovered the fiscal dominance framing, or the personal inflation premium concept, or understood why the mainstream view might be too optimistic. The extra time was worth it for a model I'll use repeatedly.

10. The final output is better than any single model produced.

Our consensus landed at 3.46% expected inflation with a 50/30/20 probability split. That's more conservative than ChatGPT, less alarmist than Gemini, and incorporates the best ideas from all four. The whole really is greater than the sum of the parts - but only if you do the synthesis work yourself.

THE CONSENSUS MODEL WE BUILT

After comparing all four, landed here:

Base Case (50%): 3.2% average Bear Case (30%): 5.0% average
Bull Case (20%): 2.0% average Expected: 3.46%

To maintain $100K purchasing power:

• 2040 (retirement at 65): $171K needed
• 2045 (age 70): $202K needed
• 2060 (age 85): $352K needed

The Bear Case is the wake-up call:

If things go wrong, you need $552K in 2060 to match what $100K buys today. That's 5.5x. Traditional retirement planning doesn't account for this.

Next step: plug these multipliers into a Bitcoin accumulation calculator. The question becomes: how much BTC does a Gen Xer need to clear the 3.5% real return hurdle for 35 years?

That's tomorrow's project. 😀👊🚴

#genx #inflation #bitcoin #retirement #ai

I’ve got four tabs open with the following AI models and starting a new project with a simple question:

How much bitcoin does a GenX need to retire in a modestly priced mountain town in the South East US? 🤔

• Claude
• Kimi via
  npub10hpchee…xkdxkr

• Grok via
  npub16g4umvw…uekv4h

• ChatGPT

#bitcoin #genx #ai #proofofride

For Sale: Canaan Avalon Nano Q

Lightly used - I’ve only run it for a month. Runs consistently at 95 TH/s (above the 90 TH/s they advertise). Minor dust from operation, otherwise excellent condition.

Retail: $1,776-1,899 
Asking1,500,000 sats (~$1,320)

Free shipping (ground, ~7 days and $2,000 insurance included)
 Mining with

Pool: typically 5,000-6,000 sats/day, sometimes 10K, occasionally skips a day or two (this is normal with their payment system).

Only selling because in my new place this heats up one room really well but I can't integrate it with the furnace system so the upstairs heating is off.

Obviously happy to answer any questions. DM if interested.

Reposts appreciated 🤙

#bitcoin #mining #homemining #bitcoinmining #asic #ocean #oceanpool #forsale #btc #plebmining #stacksats #canaan #avalon

Holiday gifts to myself. Hopefully I’ll get enough work done Monday and Tuesday to sit in this chair and read. 🤞

#bitcoin

Merchant onboarding update...

While I don't drink, I do like good coffee and I do like good chocolate. It would be better to have zero vices, but I think all in all those are two decent ones.

I went by one of my favorite coffee shop's sister location and asked if I could pay with Bitcoin. I got two responses.

"I don't think so. Nobody's ever asked" said the barista getting me a cup of coffee to go.

Then the other person chimes in, "Square is owned by Jack Dorsey, who rips people off with his fees."

This person went into this story about how they took out a loan with Square for their business and how they were charged 20%.

I just listened and realized that this was not the store front that was going to accept it. The main location is one I can go to later in the day that has the roaster and where the owner is.

My take-home is pretty simple: The person who is all fired up about the fact that Jack Dorsey is some sort of criminal who believes in Bitcoin isn't the owner and doesn't understand the fact that for the owner/their boss is accustomed to paying the 2.6% plus the 15 cent transaction. This barista has no skin in the game, spouting off about how unfair it is that these companies provide a service to the merchant which allows them to process the credit card transaction.

And the other thing worth noting, because I feel like it's dishonest if I don't give you the full picture, is this is a store that's deeply connected to the LGBTQ community. I'm solidly a LGBTQ ally, and I'm open to people being gender fluid, which is how I would categorize this person over the years that I've seen them behind the counter.

My guess is when this person started talking to me they see a middle-aged white man who looks pretty damn square asking to pay with Bitcoin at a Square terminal - they don't see an ally, they see an adversary. I'm likely a surrogate for Jack Dorsey, who they hate. Jack = bitcoin = crook, in their mind.

In the area I'm in, I think the brewery owners are ones we should be talking to more than coffee shop owners.

I don't drink, so there's really no reason for me to go there.

I do think a combination of having Bitcoin meetups at a brewery coupled with the fact that, as I laid out in this document, the brewery owner can get a significant amount of Bitcoin over the next five years if they simply accept Bitcoin payments and then are identified on the

and the

map as a place that accepts bitcoin.

All of that is laid out in the article below.

That's the update for today. Work has calmed down, and I'm going to find some time the rest of the month to try and talk to some merchants.

I'd love to hear other people's stories of successfully onboarding people. I wonder if there's almost a simple script. Mine is simply ordering the coffee and saying, "Hey, do you know if I'm able to pay with Bitcoin?" And they say something roughly that they've never had anybody ask. Then I tell them they can do it with Square.

Anyway I have a dataset of two right now, and obviously that's too small. So I just need to put in the legwork and interact with a lot more people, and perhaps go to a brewery with somebody I know in the Bitcoin community and let them do the talking and see how they do it.

#bitcoin #merchantadoption #circulareconomy

https://blossom.primal.net/ed81d42f692dc0ea3465f10da2492d395fa44a3904d38953c49fcc8e2f556e28

Heres what I leaned this month about what merchants can gain in both cash and bitcoin by turning on Square’s new button.

1. If you had a coffee shop, liquor store, and brewery in the same neighborhood, the brewery has the most to gain.

Annual credit card fees:

    •    Coffee shop: ~$16K     •    Liquor store: ~$28K     •    Brewery: ~$31K

2. You only need 1% of customers paying Bitcoin in 2026, growing to 4% by 2030, for meaningful accumulation.

3. Square's 50/50 option - half cash, half Bitcoin - means no one's betting their business.

With this approach over 5 years:

• Coffee shop stacks ~0.08 BTC
• Liquor store stacks ~0.15 BTC
• Brewery stacks ~0.21 BTC

4. Breweries can host bitcoin meetups on slow nights - turning Tuesday into a community event.

5. The language you learned bitcoin in - Austrian economics, sound money, freedom money - is foreign to someone trying to make payroll. Let’s not lead with that. (I also explain why I’m not sure the “no chargeback” aspect of bitcoin is a good one to lead with for these businesses).

6. They don't need to understand Bitcoin to benefit from accepting it.

The article below takes about 12 minutes to read.

At the end is a GitHub link with 2-page leave-behinds you can print on card stock for your local coffee shop, brewery, or liquor store. If the merchant gets curious, there's a 20-minute read time document for each type of merchant laying out the full financial case.

Bottom line: even with the 50/50 approach, they end up with more cash on hand AND a nice little stack after five years.

#bitcoin #merchantadoption #circulareconomy

nostr:

Some light Sunday reading 😂

#bitcoin #merchantadoption #circulareconomy

nostr:

Been working on something for Bitcoiners who want to get their local merchants accept Bitcoin.

I modeled a brewery, a liquor store, and a coffee shop to see if their bottom line’s are improved by accepting bitcoin. Turns out they can get more cash and have a nice stack in 5 years if they just turn on this option in their Square terminal.

Turns out the brewery wins big - up to $50K in extra business value over 5 years just by doing 50/50 on Bitcoin payments - 50% held in cash, 50% keep on the balance sheet in Bitcoin - through Square. I had done this initially with coffee shop but the brewery gets more out of accepting payments.

I think these are realistic numbers: Just 1% of customers in 2026 growing to 4% by 2030 would pay in bitcoin.

I put everything on GitHub - the full analyses, printable two-pagers you can leave with owners, conversation scripts, etc.

But read the article first to and then check out the links to everything at the end of the article.

Obviously it’d be great if you shared this with others. Thanks! 😀

#bitcoin #merchantadoption #circulareconmy #lightning #square #cashapp

https://primal.net/e/naddr1qq2nvctftuk5ucthv9zhgjn5gd9rjut3d9nxgq3qg9ysswt67fnyqfrsgtd8l9p0eyccxlydn5eq0cn3evhm9w7e5nksxpqqqp65wvnmcs6

I just got off the stationary bike talking to Claude AI about #bitcoin. Assuming the #powerlaw math continues…

By 2035 what it cost this week to get 0.1 bitcoin will get you just 0.01 😬 I knew this before I ran the numbers, but it is powerful to see.

I’m doing my best not to deceive myself as to how crucial it is to mine fiat and stack sats in the next 2-4 years.

The window is closing. It’s go time.

#stayhumblestacksats

GM 😀👊☕️

All the normal AM things, plus a fun one: I bought a cup of coffee with sats. 😀

Some fun comments behind the counter about seeing “1,000s” It was fun. It’s reasonably close to my house so my plan is to go at least monthly and see some number go down action 😀

Have a great day.

#coffeechain #plebchain #merchantadoption #bitcoin

#mining ⛏️ #homemining #hashheating #heatpunk #bitcoin #lowtimepreference

GM 😀👊☕️

✅ walked the dog ✅ cold shower ✅ 21 min meditation ✅ made a smoothie for the high school kid ✅ fancy coffee

I have to be honest - I wish this whole morning routine didn’t take so long so long - about 90-100 minutes. So 5:30-7:10ish. I might be better served to get up at 5:15 and be at my desk by 7.

I’m excited to fully move out of my old place the next 48 hours. Glad that chapter is over.

This is the biggest #bitcoin drawdown I’ve experienced and I don’t love it, but I know it’s part of the process.

Have a great day!

#coffeechain #plebchain

I’m a bit obsessed with how to onboard local merchants.

I had modeled out what the Square terminal - and @CashApp changes - could do for a coffee shop, liquor store, and a boutique in a cool kid neighborhood. I’m using Logan Square in Chicago, home to @strike.

But tonight someone said they loved going to a meet up at a brewery, so I modeled that.

The numbers for the brewery are the most compelling. I’ll share the details soon, but long story short is this merchant can have a stack 0.3 btc over the next 5 years if they:

1. Accept bitcoin via their Square terminal.

2. Have just 1% of customers pay in btc in 2026, then see that grow linearly 4% by 2030.

3. Keep 50% of those sales in bitcoin.

The assumption is they do 1 million in revenue. For that neighborhood that’s very realistic, and on the lower end. The coffee shop does 400k and the liquor store does 700k so we have three different revenue levels.

What questions do you want answered when I release this? 100 sats for the best question⚡️

#bitcoin #merchantadoption #circulareconomy

GM 😀👊☕️

✅ walk with the dog ✅ cold shower ✅ 21 min of meditation

I’m aiming to be grateful today, and be useful and kind.

I wish I had some cash under the mattress to buy some #bitcoin but I’ve spent all I can above 100k.

Have a great day.

#coffeechain #plebchain

It's done! 😀

After a couple of weeks of work, and a couple of late nights, I'm excited to share my take on onboarding merchants who are using a Square POS terminal.

The rabbit hole I went down was simple: If my favorite coffee shop, which uses Square, were to start accepting bitcoin, what does it do for their bottom line?

The article below takes 10-12 minutes to read and includes:

• Real financial projections for coffee shops, liquor stores, and boutiques

• How the 50/50 strategy (half cash, half Bitcoin) adds $20K-$51K over 5 years

• Why transaction size matters (boutiques save 19x more per transaction than coffee shops)

• Why I'm not convinced we should lead with "no chargebacks"

This is for Bitcoiners who want to help local merchants adopt Bitcoin. Lead with their bottom line, not our conviction.

https://yakihonne.com/article/s/[email protected]/7DJdOYHpKS_CxgtygHrQJ

Obviously I'd love it if you'd share this with others and repost it, but mostly I'm happy that (a) I created something useful and (b) I get to share this on Nostr.

As

always says: We're Gonna Win!

#bitcoin #merchantadoption #circulareconomy #orangepilling

On the stationary bike, talking to Claude AI. Dog at my feet. Life is good…

If you own Bitcoin.

The flip side is I’m worried for my generation - Gen X - who hasn’t paid attention to real inflation. Not 3% that’s on the news but the 6-7-8% (or more?) that makes it too expensive to eat out with your family. So I’m talking to Claude about how much BTC you need, assuming the power curve/power law holds, to retire at 65. I’m happy working longer, and, I know biology is undefeated, so 65 yr old me likey can’t work as much.

It’s not a huge amount of bitcoin to change a friend’s retirement, but the longer they wait the more they have to get. Claude thinks 200k is a magic level where interest in bitcoin will swell.

Obviously I’m preaching to the choir here, but running the numbers it’s (obviously) going to be harder to get .3 in 3 years than it is to get .3 today, let alone in 2030.

Finally, Google Search Trends over the past five years for bitcoin, gold, and silver:

Minus a bump after Trump’s election bitcoin searches are down. Gold and silver up over the same time, and with an inflection point the last few months for those two, and a stepper dive down for Bitcoin searches.

Back to sunrise photos 😀

#bitcoin #powerlaw #powercurve

I don’t think I’ve ever been as excited about a purchase with sats as I am with the boards and other items from

I’ll let the pictures do the talking. I bought the big board, the #bitaxe stand and the keys tray. He threw in the small board which I’ll use for garlic and onions.

The boards are cherry and over time, with oil/beeswax applied monthly, the colors should deepen.

This wood was dried with excess heat from miners! Check him out to see then workspace with the wood in there.

I always wanted a nice cutting board and to get one with sats is awesome. Thank you nostr:nprofile1qqsxknlx3frewqqzhmhef6kvzrcgmah4qeu7dvtfg9uwsmqwxq6yvnqpr9mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumrp0qckgatyv5hxuet59uq3uamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3dwfjkccte9eskcem0w3jkx6pwd9hj7rj20la 🙏🏻😀👊

#worththesats #circulareconomy #bitcoin #mining #bitaxe #heatpunk #zapsnag

Saturday night.

#dogstr #bitcoin

#asknostr

I just found @CsTominaga - S Tominaga - on Twitter. What's everyone's take on his #bitcoin takes?

Here's what Grok thinks are the five biggest legit concerns he brings up:

1. Scalability Woes: BTC's base layer maxes at ~7 TPS in 2025, far from Visa's 65,000+ TPS needed for global cash—block size caps (1MB base, ~4MB with SegWit) force off-chain layers, killing true P2P micropayments without added risks.

2. LN Not Saving Us: Lightning Network capacity dropped ~20% to 4,200 BTC in 2025, showing adoption lags; it's growing for enterprises but can't hit mass scale without base fixes, turning BTC into "digital gold" only.

3. Security Time Bomb: Halvings cut miner rewards to 3.125 BTC/block; by 2060, subsidies near zero, relying on sky-high fees ($200+/TX) or risk hashrate drops and 51% attacks in a death spiral.

4. Declining Security Budget: BTC's security spend fell 40% over four years (CPI-adjusted), with smaller miners exiting and hashpower centralizing (96-99% blocks by six pools)—price can't pump forever to cover it.

5. Privacy Nightmare: Transparent ledger enables easy tracing and seizures; without scaling for fungible UTXOs, it's not cash-like—2025 privacy regs block progress, and tools like CoinJoin face delistings or

Good morning 😀👊 ☕️

Some light reading to start the day 😂

#GM #coffeechain #bitcoin

For the educators at my kid’s schools, the sad reality is that the window for them to get a meaningful amount of bitcoin with the savings from their salary is closing fast. 😞

#bitcoin

TLDR: If you self custody #bitcoin, you’re early. 🫵 👊

I blessed to have a fantastic business coach. He’s likely smarter than me in terms of raw intellectually horsepower. He’s much smarter - and battle tested - when it comes to seeing how to both build and maintain my humble businesses.

We’re planning the next 12-18 months for my current business and a new business via email before a call.

He knows about bitcoin. I asked him to read a 4,000 word document - 16 min read - on the Power Curve and realistic price targets in the next 5 years as a way to frame why I want/need/must to go as hard as I can work wise the next 5 years. His concern is always that I’m working too much, but after some dark years in my 30s and 40s I have to work more than all of my college friends. And that’s fine. I like to work 😀

I offered to have him use part of the retainer for reading the document but he wanted to read it for his own education. So what follows is from an email before he’s read what I hope will be a convincing document.

Not only was he into bitcoin in 2020-21 but he was mining it.

With that as the backdrop, here is what he said…

“Will read your bitcoin doc to have some further context for your larger life/business situation. I've been out of bitcoin world since 2021. Just getting back into it now by making small purchases when dips happen. Just a very low key hobby. I'm only spending an amount I'd be okay losing, which feels healthy for me personally. You know way more about BTC than I do at this point, but I was way down in that rabbit hole in 2020 and learned all I could at the time. 

I'll say this once and then I won't bring it up again, because I don't want to give opinions on things that are outside of my wheelhouse: Bitcoin makes me nervous, and by extension, I'm a bit nervous about you putting too many eggs in the BTC basket. I just don't want to see you lose money you can't afford to lose. 

Take that for what it's worth, knowing that you know more about BTC than I do and you have a much better sense of where things are headed. 

When I was way down in the crypto rabbit hole a few years back, I saw a lot of people lose a lot of money when the bear market came in 2022. Maybe those people stayed in and just HODLed and now they're doing great. But the volatility of BTC stuck with me. I'm sure things have changed on many levels, so I probably have leftover fears from the 2020 - 2022 era. 

Okay, I'll shut up about that now. This is outside of my zone of knowledge. :)”

So you can see what a great guy he is and how he cares about me (and my family). I’m blessed to have him in my life.

And…

To me his buying isn’t much different than someone enjoying gambling in Las Vegas: you spend some to have some fun, hoping to double your money, but if you lose it all it’s no big deal because it was an amount you were willing to lose. Maybe that’s not fair, but that’s “bitcoin curious” and not “bitcoin convicted.”

In the same email we’re talking about how expensive things are - housing, food l, college. Maybe I should have a decision about sound money in the document, but to me everyone knows that printer go brrrrrr and that the after sports practice Chipotle dinner is expensive since Covid because in part because of the stimulus checks we cashed.

To be fair, I’m so new to bitcoin that I’ve only dealt with 15-20 percent drops, and the price has bounced back. But in every case I bought more, even if was a small amount, out of principle. Yen cary trade is all I’ve had to weather, and I know that was just a blip.

All of this to say, you’re early. 👊

There are a few million people like him - smart, and who understand parts of Bitcoin - yet not only don’t they have a hardware wallet, they don’t have any exposure in an ETF.

#bitcoin

Great two days at

. Not only did I meet other bitcoiners in the flesh, but I meet people who are on nostr. I feel fortunate to get to do that.

Today I ate lunch with someone on nostr who, like me, has spent sats with

and

. That was super cool! And they #zapsnag some wine from nostr:nprofile1qqs2gndun24r2utk5l20tscsdprw5zttvm0qk58w8xhl2ja2kmzt7jcpremhxue69uhkummnw3ez6ur4vgh8wetvd3hhyer9wghxuet59uq36amnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwvf5hgcnvda3kkcn0dakjucm0d5hs44fkg0 a few days back.

All in all a great two days!

#bitcoin #worththesats

Just meet

at

. Great guy and it was so fun to get chat with someone in the flesh I only know through #nostr.

We’re going to win! #bitcoin

I feel like I owe everyone an apology. I bought some #bitcoin at 110k earlier this morning. The price always goes down after I buy 😂

This is great.

…and…

Does anyone have resources on how to onboard a local business?What do you lead with?

• No CC fees?
• Keep BTC on the balance sheet and see it grow?
• Get a loyal customer who wants to support you?

Those at the first three that come to mind.

#bitcoin #grownostr

In my country, low time preference is a radical concept for most. 🐑🐑🐑

#bitcoin

It’s a rare American over 60 that could put a meaningful amount of fiat in to an ETF - let alone self custody - and not lose their mind with the daily volatility. I know my 80 year old dad couldn’t and he’s a strong, level headed person.

I think we forget how unique a low time preference is because everyone here on #nostr has one. Maybe this is a U.S. issue and other cultures have low time preference as part of their worldview. #bitcoin

I’ve been thinking about this for about a year, but tonight - day 10 on nostr? - is the first time I’ve heard someone’s take on it. I rwallg like this one.

I guess we all get to define anti-fragile. #bitcoin #asknostr

What are the hashtags I should use when I share a note about a product or service in found here on #nostr that accepts #bitcoin?

Thanks! #newtonostr

I’m #newtonostr and didn’t know that there was a #zapathon today. Maybe I would have zapped more, but today is pretty typical for me.

Two weeks ago I was deep into #bitcoin but had never heard of value for value. Powerful concept.

Here’s today’s #zaplog #nostr #grownostr

I’m #newtonostr and didn’t know that there was a #zapathon today. Maybe I would have zapped more, but today is pretty typical for me.

Two weeks ago I was deep into #bitcoin but had never heard of value for value. Powerful concept.

Here’s today’s #zaplog #nostr #grownostr

Things have escalated quickly…

#mining #bitcoin

I like the idea of the power cure / power law and this is my favorite tool to fiddle with. Fred Krueger and Ben Sigman - both on Twitter - made it. You can get the app as well - it’s free.

https://b1m.io/

• The model price is the key.

• It goes up about $90 a day at the current rate.

• The multiplier tells you how far ahead of the model we are.

• Then you can click on the graph and pull the line back and forth to see what the power curve should be and the low and high band at the same date.

There are other fun things in there two. I can see it as a great way to orange pill someone who understands CAGR.

Here’s a quick video of it in action.

Time will tell if this model continues to hold. I hope it does.

#powercurve #powerlaw #bitcoin #orangepill