Pascal Hügli

Latest LNMS with Lucas Dunnes

What we talk about:

-Why everyone might be valuing Ethereum wrong -Is Ethereum the biggest bubble in finance? -Why “ultrasound money” may be more meme than valuation model -What Ethereum actually is if it’s not a company -How to measure Ethereum’s real fundamental demand -Why Lucas’ model called ETH’s direction 76.4% of the time

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/y25985zt Apple: https://tinyurl.com/44zjpf5x Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/ytfe7czj Runble: https://tinyurl.com/ysnvmdak

Latest

& LNMS Collab with Johan Bergman

YT:

We talk about:

• Why Bitcoin keeps rising even as macro and liquidity turn against it
• Why Bitcoin could become overheated above $90K and what could trigger the next pullback
• How crypto-native options traders spotted Bitcoin’s top and bottom before TradFi did
• Why France’s bond market is starting to look like Europe’s next major stress point
• How central banks keep inventing new tools whenever the financial system starts to break
• Why every crisis may ultimately lead back to money printing, debasement and harder assets
• Why bonds and cash could still outperform temporarily, even in a world of fiscal dominance

🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/yc244fbe 🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/3ddzp7vc 🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/h4ndayhd 🎧Rumble: tinyurl.com/3bv7nf2d

LNMS Insight video

• Why Bitcoin is back in bullish territory • The signal suggesting the bear market could be over • Why $78K–$80K is the key level to watch • The liquidity model that just flashed “sell Bitcoin” • Why BTC is rising despite deteriorating liquidity • Whether the market is overpricing Fed hikes • Why oil could decide Bitcoin’s next move • What the yield curve is starting to signal • Whether Bitcoin is front-running the next liquidity wave

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/2jpfkcdh Apple: https://tinyurl.com/5wsnfjrc Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/murep22w Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/3p3mn8th

Another one of these controversial LNMS interview with none other than MMTmacrotrader

We dive deep into:

-Why higher interest rates might actually make the economy boom -Why the Fed could be fighting inflation backwards -Why Trump’s dream of zero rates is incompatible with high growth -How Congress could sideline the Fed and set rates itself -Why the “free market sets long-term rates” story might be wrong -How $1.7 trillion in interest payments became stealth stimulus for asset owners

Expect some controversial yet thought provoking takes!

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/42fw4s22 Apple: https://tinyurl.com/2s3p3epk Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5n6c9as5 Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/yef7arp9

LNMS &

with Johan Bergman

We talk about:

-Liquid hack. White or gray hat hacker? -Is AGI really here and will we all die? -Realization on why BTC is indeed the biggest AI trade -Why the markets is telling Warsh to hike -How hikes at the short-end could be bullish -What is a Bitcoin bear market uptrend and how we know we are in one!

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/sjr5cejf Apple: https://tinyurl.com/bdcsh4hm Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5c2sn3at Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4uh5kreb

New LNMS with Izabella Kaminska

We talk about:

-Why Scott Bessent may be running the US Treasury like a hedge fund -How financial markets are becoming weapons in the US-China power struggle -Why China is giving away powerful AI models -How DeepSeek completely changed the economics of the AI race -Why stablecoins are the most powerful tool of financial statecraft -How stablecoins could break the banks’ last real monopoly

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/5abejsx7 Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4whx9tuv Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/3tusjsfv Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/29vd4wvh

New LNMS Insight Video

Did the US Treasury just single-handedly end the Bitcoin bear market?

Topics discussed: ➡️The key levels BTC just smashed through ➡️Will BTC establish them as support? ➡️What exactly is the Treasury announcement about? ➡️Is it money printing? ➡️Is BTC sniffing out a trend? ➡️What to watch going forward

🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/h7c8t6a5 🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/5b3avbxh 🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/drfxceme 🎧Rumble: tinyurl.com/3yhr4vek

Latest LNMS episode with Xiaoyin Qu

We talk about:

-How Chinese models are catching up this fast -How AI is becoming a new front in the US-China geopolitical and geoeconomic fight -Who will win this race? -What happens when intelligence becomes almost free? -Why companies will scale with agents instead of employees -How AI could massively increase income inequality

🎧Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/2fhtzsu7 🎧Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4m4ewh43 🎧Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/bdfkz8mz 🎧Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4azbv3fe

Our latest LNMS episode with Matt Crosby from

Pro

We talk about:

-Why right now is a critical time in Bitcoin -Why “long-term holders” are not necessarily the smart money everyone thinks they are How Bitcoin ETF investors keep buying near the highs -What investors who historically bought Bitcoin bottoms are doing right now

🎧Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/2x28wmcp 🎧Apple: https://tinyurl.com/bdjd6hxj 🎧Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/yn8duuwn 🎧Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/3ffj6a87

New LNMS & TBL collab

Together with Johan Bergmann from the

, I‘ll be sitting down on a regular basis and discuss the latest topics in Bitcoin.

This time around we discussed:

-The wide implications of the Coldcard exploit -The AI to Bitcoin rotation and whether it is underway -Why bad news no longer pushing down the BTC price is actually bullish

🎧Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/m5b2rnht 🎧Apple: https://tinyurl.com/49brenzb 🎧Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/455fxybp 🎧Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/

It's about time we to turn bullish on BTC

Macro: -AI supercycle ✅ -Fiscal Flows ✅ -Short-term liquidity impulse✅

Bitcoin-specific: -TA long-term trend ✅ -On-Chain Profit Taking Exhaustion✅ -25% of Realized Cap in Bottoming Zone✅ -Top-buyers have sold ✅ -6m to 1y top cohort in loss realization ✅

Check out our analysis

Honorable mentions @TheBitcoinLayer @MMTmacrotrader @crossbordercap @JohanMBergman @Checkmatey @OnChainMind @JustDeauIt

Comment "Slide Deck" to get the slides.

🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/5n8r96s2 🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/4nebs9vm 🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/54whuwtd 🎧Rumble: tinyurl.com/yefubf28

If you ask me, my latest LNMS episode with

provided a lot of signal.

Matthew brings a unique perspective, challenged Bitcoiner narratives and is very data-driven.

A must listen!

🎧 Youtube: youtu.be/W44cPkB8gBw

🎧 Spotify: tinyurl.com/48ebf7yn

🎧 Apple: tinyurl.com/3knz72ez

🎧 Fountain: tinyurl.com/bdhe7c6w

🎧 Rumble: tinyurl.com/yez39b5p

Latest LNMS episode with

-Why Bitcoin’s returns may keep falling over time -Why Michael Saylor’s 21% growth thesis may not hold -What happens when stocks start outperforming Bitcoin -Why the real Bitcoin test may come around 2040 -Whether Bitcoin disciplines fiat, or fiat reshapes Bitcoin -Why today’s BTC price may still be a historic opportunity

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/48ebf7yn Apple: https://tinyurl.com/3knz72ez Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/bdhe7c6w Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/yez39b5p

New LNMS article on my conversation with

from

https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/p/this-is-the-yield-bitcoiners-have

You‘ll learn:

🔶Why Bitcoin may no longer fit into a single asset category 🔶How Lightning can generate native Bitcoin yield 🔶Why this yield does not depend on leverage or token incentives 🔶How investors can retain custody while outsourcing operations 🔶The risks institutions need to understand 🔶How to deploy BTC to earn a native yield today!

Read more now!

Latest LNMS with Chris Ritter from

We talk about:

-Why does Bitcoin yield usually mean giving up your keys? -What if Lightning finally breaks that trade-off? -How can you earn a Bitcoin yield without wrapping or rehypothecation? -Why Lightning is more than just a payments network? -What makes native Bitcoin yield different from DeFi, lending, or digital credit? -How does Lightning turn Bitcoin from passive savings into productive capital?

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3s7neu6d Apple: https://tinyurl.com/ys6zz5e3 Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/vyu9mrf2 Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/2uem5hy5

Latest LNMS episode with Charles Edwards!

We talk about:

-Why Bitcoin may be cheap, but the price chart is not clean yet. -Why the four-year cycle may not be enough this time. -How Strategy is similiar to TerraLuna! -Why the biggest Bitcoin trade right now might be happening outside Bitcoin -When to turn bullish again!

Spotify: tinyurl.com/4jucj4xk Apple: tinyurl.com/bdet3b26 Fountain: tinyurl.com/5dpy826p Rumble: tinyurl.com/25se9v6h

Global liquidity update:

If you look closely, net liquidity just turned into contractionary/deteriorating territory.

This is when you account for rates (cost of capital). In plain english then:

M2 YoY less rates is below zero and trending lower over the past 30 days.

This is usually bearish risk assets!

Good to know that M2 and rates are not the only factor driving global liquidity.

Another important factor is cross-border flows and these are currently adding a ton of liquidity through the carry trade (think lower Yen)

New LNMS Insights Take:

-Governments may be printing money without calling it QE. -The real liquidity engine is no longer the Fed. It’s short-term debt -How Japan is shifting duration to the front-end and making rising long-end yields less of a worry -What this all means for investors

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/w4ad42e3 Apple: https://tinyurl.com/376njttw Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/483asp8r Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/3admnyn6

Latest LNMS episode with Jamie Coutts.

We talk about:

-Why Bitcoin’s liquidity model is breaking in real time -Why AI is sucking capital out of crypto -Why 58K is the line Bitcoin cannot lose -What happens if we break this support -Why the IPO panic is a distraction from the real threat Why Treasury refinancing is the next thing to think about as an investor

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3ukhaup3 Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4yhnhfcd Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5a45bxzk Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/murwf8yd

Everyone is worried about Bitcoin!

Is Bitcoin loosing its grip and narrative?

And what to anchor to in bearm market times like these?

Here‘s why we Bitcoin. Bitcoin will be the next base layer money and it will be better than the previous ones.

Here‘s why:

Let me know what you think

Latest LNMS episode with Joe Consorti

We talk about:

-Why Strategy selling Bitcoin may be bullish -Why Saylor is “inoculating” the market -Why the AI trade is stealing Bitcoin’s spotlight -Why Bitcoin may be pricing risk better than stocks -Why the four year cycle may still be alive -Why 60K is the level bulls must defend

Spotify: tinyurl.com/3n54fyk9 Fountain: tinyurl.com/2saysp3e Apple: tinyurl.com/38z4kzkk Rumble: tinyurl.com/3ucxns4a

Latest LNMS episode with the amazing David Dredge

We talk about:

-Why “risk free” bonds became the system’s weak spot -Why every bond market panic turns into equity support -Why recessions now start when markets crash -Why governments are entering Hunger Games bond issuance -Why capital controls may start with airplane tickets

Fountain: https://bit.ly/4vdKbYv Spotify: https://bit.ly/4uEq2Lx Apple: https://bit.ly/4u4ZEJE Rumble: https://bit.ly/3Rzo2Wa

LNMS episode 113 with Jordan

We talk about:

-Why altcoins are losing their edge -Why Bitcoin and altcoins are not the same game -Why the best altcoin traders sell -Why crypto faces a “come to Jesus” moment -Why Bitcoin may have quietly broken the bear trend -Why this rally may be healthier than it looks

Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/ytm2m6yu Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/n2dadbpk Apple: https://tinyurl.com/2s3e2nde Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/25cbcapf

LNMS episode 111 with Markus from 10xResearch

We talk about:

Is the Bitcoin bear market already over? Why the halving may be the wrong signal to watch Why investors are bullish, but still underpositioned Why inflation could stay higher than markets expect Why Bitcoin may be the only clean crypto trade The hidden miner risk nobody is pricing in

Fountain: tinyurl.com/7u3avx7a Spotify: tinyurl.com/mpumpnuv Apple: tinyurl.com/45evff7y Rumble: tinyurl.com/mry6zzky

Get a chance to win our Bitcoin book.

Check out the next post on how to 🤟👇

This was a great episode with

If you follow us on

and interact with this episode's post on Nostr, you get the chance to win a hardcopy of our Bitcoin book 'The Bitcoin Enlightenment' published by the SaifHouse.

Here's the link to Fountain, so you can follow us. Much appreciated 🙏

https://fountain.fm/show/JChxhQ3O0Oa9gae26CaR

LNMS episode 109 with

We talk about:

-Why he withdrew from social media completely & doesn't look back -How he gets his information about what's happening -How the US is using the Persian gulf blockade to make Iran's oil infrastructure implode -The various BTC signals converging right now

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/2u87zar5 Apple: https://tinyurl.com/3zss5pyd Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/3yu6tsfb Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/y5xre6c6

Win our book if you follow us on

and interact with this episode!

Check out the full conditions here:

https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsrtdugm06pf2jl4kusljuc35mmy4a2cm3t4d2clv9h6n82sqsxz8glm0f2t

LNMS Episode 108 with Sonus Varghese

We talk about:

-Why markets are rallying -What if the Fed’s “pause” is actually a hidden easing cycle? -Why could sticky inflation be bullish for stocks and gold? -What if AI is not deflationary, but inflationary first? -Why the classic 60/40 portfolio may no longer be enough!

Spotify: tinyurl.com/bpahfh8b Apple: tinyurl.com/ywnbf8vb Fountain: tinyurl.com/y6kxstd2 Rumble: tinyurl.com/2s3myx26

Meet the Swiss National Bank, the world’s largest hedge fund.

Here’s a snapshot of its current balance sheet:

110% of GDP, most assets are foreign currency holdings.

What might be the implications?!

“You gotta zoom out.”

BTC could easily go higher over the next few days, but that is not the trade we care about.

The real setup may be a mean reverting move over weeks, maybe even months.

Full argument in the article:

https://open.substack.com/pub/lessnoisemoresignal/p/btc-at-decision-time-and-what-we

Props to

for the chart!

Want to win a signed Bitcoin book?

LNMS is giving away 3 signed copies to listeners who help grow our show on

To enter:

1. Follow the podcast on Fountain
2. Repost this note
3. Zap Sats or share content
4. Add #21Signal to every message

There are 3 ways to win:

-Become "Top Supporter": Highest total sats during the campaign

-Become "Most Bitcoin Like Zap": Best zap amount plus message. Be as creative as possible

-Become "Top Signal Amplifier": Best repost of one episode during the campaign that gets more people to discover the show

We’ll share leaderboard in every episode while the sprint lasts.

Campaign closes: May 15, 8pm CET

Follow the show on Fountain: https://fountain.fm/show/JChxhQ3O0Oa9gae26CaR

Less noise. More signal. #21Signal

Here‘s the long tldr on our recent newsletter piece 😅

https://open.substack.com/pub/lessnoisemoresignal/p/war-liquidity-and-the-bitcoin-bear

Equity markets are up across the board ytd, despite (bc of?) war. A lot of people are surprised. How can this be possible? (well, in this piece, we explain just that!)

Now, one straightforward answer is that earnings expectations are very supportive, putting a floor under financial markets.

Also, it is very likely that markets have called Trumps bluff and are looking through it all. The recent Trump tweets just a few days ago have been quite odd. Is there really gonna be a permanent peace deal or is it all Trump rhetoric for now? For now, we believe the former is the case.

That being said, you want to focus on numbers and not Trump talk anyways. A key question is whether the Strait of Hormuz is actually open or closed. What we have found in our research is tha teven if you account for shadow fleet, there are not many tankers going through the Strait (judging from satellite data).

Since the start of the war, the total barrel cost of the crisis lands around 900 million barrels. So, expecting some further disruption in the real economy because of oil supply shortage isn't that much of stretc.

As we can see, prices for fertilizers have already jumped to the highest level in three years.

Now, the follow-up question from this that is on everybody's mind: Will we see higher inflation across the board. The latest CPIs have come in above expectation. And a leading indicator like the Philadelphia Fed’s Current Delivery Time diffusion index would also suggest, higher inflation is the base case.

This is obviously a concern for central banks (around the world). While markets price hikes by the end of year for Europe, Japan and Switzerland, in the US, a pause seems to be the most likely scenario.

If the Fed does indeed keep rates steady, this should be bringing done real reates, which is positive liquidity. The same goes for the US dollar, which should tick lower, especially when other central banks will have to hike (making their currencies more attractive).

Lower real rates (to the point, where they might even turn negative in the US?) and a lower dollar are both very positive for financial liquidity, hence the recent stock (and bitcoin) market rally.

When it comes to fiscal flows (government spending) and private lending, we don't see too many concerning signs just yet. As you know, we've been highlighting since last October that government spending has been trending down year-over-year. This downtrend seems to have decelerated and it will be important to watch going forward.

The same goes for private bank lending.. It's plateauing but it's not decisively rolling over just yet. So all in all, the liquidity situation seems to be supportive.

So, does this mean bitcoin will keep its upward trend going? Well, although the liquidity situation is favorable and the circumstances are good (negative funding), we feel like the resistance around $85k to $87k will be to strong (if we get to these levels at al, sth-cost basis at $81k).

As such, we think that Bitcoin consolidation is most likely. In our article, we lay out three possible scenarios and attach a probability for each. We also try to answer the question, when the bear market really started. And it's not October 10, as most would say...

Last but not least, we focus on three bottom signals we are closely watching!

All neatly laid out in our newsletter! 👇🏻💪🏻

New LNMS newsletter article:

https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/p/war-liquidity-and-the-bitcoin-bear

Most people are still baffled by the fact that equity markets are back to all-time highs!

Well, let me tell you something: War headlines are not the primary force driving them any longer.

We have moved on. Here's what you need to watch:

-How much of the oil shock feeds through to inflation? -Will the Fed really look through it all? If so, real rates could tick lower -The dollar could tick lower as well -And the overall liquidity situation could stay supportive

This is what we think markets are pricing right now!

Does this mean Bitcoin will continue its run?

Most likely not. There's still too much supply overhang and resistance at key levels.

Instead of chasing the rally, watch these three bottom signals and these three possible ends to this bear (elaborated on in the article).

To connect all the dots, read our latest piece:

LNMS Daily Briefing April 21

Global Macro:

• Apr 20: The US seized an Iranian flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responded by suspending planned talks, a sign the truce is fraying just as the next ceasefire deadline approaches. This matters because the market is repricing shipping risk faster than it is repricing diplomacy.
• Apr 20: Brent crude rose more than 5% to about $95 a barrel as Hormuz disruption fears returned, and Citi said oil could reach $110 if the disruption lasts another month. That keeps the inflation impulse alive and argues against an easy restart of rate cut pricing.

Bitcoin & Stablecoins:

  •     April 21: Money, mostly stablecoins are currently leaving DeFi protocols at a breathtaking space, following the hacks on Aave (and Drift). Investors fear there could be an inflectipn point, also with AI innovation accelerating the potential for more hacks.

• Apr 20: The BIS warned that stablecoins behave more like tradable financial assets than money and said fragmented rulemaking risks worsening market fragmentation. The message matters because stablecoin growth is now large enough to become a policy and market structure issue, not just a crypto issue.
• Apr 20: Strategy bought 34,164 BTC for about $2.54 billion at roughly $74,395 per coin, lifting holdings to 815,061 BTC. It matters because corporate treasury demand is still absorbing supply even with macro volatility high.

AI / Frontier Models:

• Apr 20: Amazon said it will invest another $5 billion in Anthropic, with the broader deal rising to as much as $25 billion, while Anthropic committed to spend more than $100 billion on AWS and use 5 gigawatts of Amazon AI chip capacity. This is a clean signal that frontier AI competition is now being fought through infrastructure lock in as much as model quality.
• Apr 20: Anthropic said it will keep access to its Mythos model tightly restricted because of cybersecurity risks tied to the model’s capabilities. That matters because safety constraints are starting to shape revenue timing and deployment strategy for frontier models.

Polymarket Signal:

• Global Macro: This market is about whether there will be no Fed cuts in 2026. It matters today because the oil shock is pushing inflation risk back into the macro conversation. Current probability: no cuts is 34.7%.
• Bitcoin & Stablecoins: This market is about whether Bitcoin hits $80,000 in April. It matters today because Strategy’s latest purchase adds to the bullish supply absorption story. Current probability: 41.5% yes.
• AI / Frontier Models: This market is about which company has the best AI model at the end of April. It matters today because Amazon’s deeper commitment to Anthropic reinforces the market’s view that model leadership is concentrating. Current probability: Anthropic 92.5%.

Watchlist:

• Whether the ceasefire holds through the next Hormuz deadline, because another visible slippage likely feeds straight into oil and shipping premiums.
• Whether DeFi outflows stall. This matters for rates and underlying blockchains. • Whether stablecoin oversight hardens into globally coordinated rules, because the BIS has now made fragmentation the core policy concern.
• Whether AI capex commitments keep accelerating from here, because the Amazon Anthropic deal raises the bar for hyperscaler funded model competition.

New joint episode idea:

When

+ Bonnie Blue on LNMS? 😅

Or is this too much of a strech?

You tell me...

LNMS Daily Briefing April 16

Global Macro:

• Apr 15: US escalated enforcement in Hormuz with expanded inspections and convoy controls while insurers raised premiums sharply, further restricting tanker supply. This deepens the physical constraint rather than easing it. • Apr 15: Brent crude pushed toward ~$104 with front month spreads widening, signaling continued tightness in prompt supply despite diplomatic noise. Market structure confirms real scarcity. • Apr 15: US real yields moved higher alongside breakevens, reflecting simultaneous tightening in financial conditions and rising inflation expectations from energy shock.

Bitcoin & Stablecoins:

• Apr 15: Regional trade flows increasingly settling in USD stablecoins rather than BTC as intermediaries prioritize liquidity and price stability. This reinforces stablecoins as the dominant transactional layer. • Apr 15: No major ETF or on chain shift observed, with BTC holding range despite macro stress, suggesting limited leverage and no forced positioning unwind.

AI / Frontier Models:

• Apr 15: Amazon expanded Bedrock enterprise integrations with new agent based workflow tools and early enterprise adoption signals across logistics and customer operations. This points to deeper real world deployment. • Apr 15: TSMC flagged sustained AI chip demand strength into late 2026 with capacity remaining tight despite expansion efforts. This supports continued capex intensity and pricing power.

Polymarket Signal:

• Global Macro: Will the US enter a permanent peace deal with Iran before April 30? Current probability 39 percent. • AI / Frontier Models: Will Nvidia remain the largest company in market cap by end of 2026. This ties to ongoing supply constraints and demand concentration. Current probability 70 percent.

Watchlist • Actual tanker throughput versus convoy capacity in Hormuz • Pass through of energy into core inflation and Fed response • Whether stablecoin settlement expands into formal trade agreements

LNMS Episode 104 with

from

YT:

We talk about:

-Why Lightning may be far bigger than it looks. -How everyone is looking at it the wrong way! -Why AI agents may end up choosing Lightning simply because the incentives are better -Why stablecoins on Bitcoin could become one of the biggest unlocks for Lightning -How Bitcoin may evolve from digital gold into a yield-bearing asset. -Why Lightning could grow from a payments network into a full Bitcoin-native financial layer.

🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/ae2vp6ps 🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/2s42yepa 🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/mr2zdx4n 🎧Rumble:tinyurl.com/3hun7pyj

LNMS Episode 103

YT:

We talk about: -Why almost every macro framework used is outdated -How fiscal flows are the missing driver every investor needs -How markets obsess over the wrong things (like the Fed) -How you better explain what drives stocks, bubbles and bitcoin -MMT versus Austrian Economics -Why endorsing a gold standard, is endorsing big goverment

🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/tawjd49n 🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/3p2jjka4 🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/3tnamvmw 🎧Rumble: tinyurl.com/3ay7vccm

Less Noise More Signal is now also on

Check us out🤝🙏

https://fountain.fm/show/JChxhQ3O0Oa9gae26CaR

https://fountain.fm/show/JChxhQ3O0Oa9gae26CaR

Okay, now things get serious.

What should I answer?

And would you watch an LNMS episode of me interviewing Sydney on her views on Bitcoin?

Better subscribe to the show, you never know it might happen some day! 🙏 🙃

https://youtube.com/@lessnoisemoresignalpodcast?si=BcJgPuHU_u16p---

Latest episode with Globalflows & Michael Howell

Topics:

-Why cross-border capital flows matter so much for liquidity -Why hardly any investor is focused on them -Where the marginal liquidity is coming from right now -What the major macro risks are in 2026 -Are liquidity spigots really drying up? -What is really driving the Bitcoin price -Whether or not more cuts will be priced in forward curve?

Latest LNMS newsletter is out:

https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/p/ending-qt-wont-do-much-and-why-almost

➡️Are bank reserves really scarce? ➡️Fascinating case study of BTC's real-time price changes to recent plumbing changes ➡️Why investors should pay attention to rumors around gov' shutdown ending and Nov 5 Supreme Court tariff decision ➡️Gold's rally as a structural change and how to really think about the gold–Bitcoin “catch-up” trade. ➡️Why the end of quantitative tightening (QT) won’t make any material difference ➡️A fresh look at inflation

#asknostr

Is there a free schedulinh software for Nostr?

You wanna tell me the economy is weak?

Well, bank earnings tell a different story!

Here's my talk with Infranomics:

Prepare for a bunch of interesting charts with this one:

-Understanding TIPS auctions and how it helps get a read on inflation -The silent depression thesis -Why the average person feels so left behind -How government spending, financial assets and corporate profits are outperforming GDP -The importance of adjusting the denominator!

This was a true masterclass type talk for me with Johan Bergman

We talk about:

-Bitcoin‘s evolvinh yield curve -What Strategy‘s preferreds are and how the function -How a proper credit rating on them opens up this market to trillions -How you can use these preferreds in combination with your house -How to think about BTCTC -Why BTCTCs will need to put their BTC to work -Why you need a strategic fiat reserve when on a Bitcoin Standard -And much more!

Truly mind-blowing convo! Check it out now

Once a Bitcoin skeptic, now an advocate.

is a climate tech investor who took a deep dive into Bitcoin... and came out bullish.

YT:

In this episode, we unpack:

-Why Bitcoin Mining is key to the green energy revolution -How disruptive tech always faces doubt — until it doesn't -Why Bitcoin is a climate ally, not an enemy -How Bitcoin is net benefical for climate endeavors -Its growing social impact -And the challenges still ahead

Don’t miss this one.

Thank you

for a great chat on

This was an amazing chat with Jordi Visser, a macro brain that is all over the two most important topics of today: AI and Bitcoin.

We talk about how the two relate, how AI is challenging macro assumptions and how exactly you should be using AI yourself.

YT:

This is my conversation with Eric Weiss on how he orange-pilled Michael Saylor.

YT:

This was fun discussion about Bitcoin, billionaire and HNWIs.

And yes, as irony would have it, Eric suddenly receive a call from

Excellent new episode with Sean Bill from

YT:

We discuss:

-How Bitcoin can help address public pensions' unfunded liability problem

-Why Bitcoin is fundamentally different from tech stocks — backed by compelling data -Smart allocation and rebalancing strategies for money managers -Why self-sovereignty matters when it comes to holding Bitcoin -Different Bitcoin investment strategies — from yield and income to alpha generation

thanks for amplifying! 🤝

Bitcoin about to put in a double top?

Since its all-time high of $111k, Bitcoin has corrected about 6% to $105k. After hovering at this level for several days, some investors are now concerned we could be seeing the formation of another double top, similar to 2021. Frankly, I expected Bitcoin to push higher after breaking its all-time high in May. The reason it hasn’t is mainly because the demand side looks weak.

For one, ETF inflows have stalled, even turning negative by nearly $1 billion in late May and early June. Strategy also appears to be struggling to attract fresh capital, having purchased only 705 BTC on June 2.

On-chain dynamics show that coins held for 3 to 5 years — amounts comparable to local tops in March and November 2024 — are being sold into the market. The inability to absorb these coins at all-time-high prices suggests demand is fading.

From a sentiment perspective, last week’s Bitcoin conference felt like a potential top signal; watching the livestream gave me the impression that the enthusiasm from Bitcoin Treasury companies might be at a peak level.

The upcoming Circle IPO is another example: targeting a fully diluted valuation of up to $7.2 billion, the upcoming IPO is said to be oversuscribed by 25x. If this doesn’t give you late-cycle vibes, I don‘t know what will.

Finally, leverage remains elevated, as seen in futures volume, signaling that many investors are still positioned for immediate upside. Although this has eased somewhat since the all-time high, it’s still not non-negligible.

So, where do we stand? A week ago, I speculated that BTC would go to $120k fairly fast. I remain cautiously bullish in the short term, particularly as long as we hold above the short-term holder cost basis at $97k. Should we fall below that level, market psychology could take a real hit and things would have to be seriously assessed.

To stay above it, we’ll need to see fresh demand step in. If we dip lower in the coming days, I’d expect the first meaningful demand and support zone to appear around $99k.

Thoughts?

We are truly honored that

has read our new book ‘The Bitcoin Enlightenment’ and shared such a thoughtful and generous praise.

Thank you, Lyn. I think I speak in the name of the entire industry, when I say:

Your work is inspiring countless people in this space — ourselves included — and we’re deeply grateful to have you.

Get your copy of the book now:

https://academy.saifedean.com/product/the-bitcoin-enlightenment-hardcover

After months of anticipation, I’m thrilled to announce that our new book is finally here.

The Bitcoin Enlightenment is our magnum opus — a tribute to the #Bitcoin community and a deep dive into its transformative potential.

Here are only a few unique selling points the book offers:

➡️ An exclusive look into the family history of Mexican billionaire and Bitcoin advocate Ricardo B. Salinas ➡️A coherent, fact-based account of humanity’s fall from monetary grace ➡️A unique historical deep dive into the founding of the world’s first central bank (BoE) and the rise of government bond markets ➡️How fiat money places an especially heavy burden on younger generations ➡️Why CBDCs and MMT represent the endgame of the fiat system ➡️An assessment of the striking parallels between Bitcoin and the Reformation ➡️A forward-looking exploration of what a bitcoinized world might look like

I am beyond grateful to have had this opportunity!

Thanks for all the help, words of encouragement and general support! Also to

and team

Order the book now (and if you do, thanks for leaving a review 👏 🙏)

amzn.eu/d/7o1cqzT

Spotted at #Bitcoin2025

The Fiat Standard -

The Bitcoin Enlightenment - Ricardo Salinas, Daniel Jungen and

Broken Money -

A golden trio?😎🔥Go get them now!

https://thesaifhouse.com

Props to nostr:nprofile1qqs28zju6rkzf5ljp3y8pgpjcxvfzzdlzp7ye6ry3lw948zyj2cm3uqppamhxue69uhkummnw3ezumt0d5q3qamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wd4hk6tc5zuyet for the amazing pic!

This is my interview with Michael Every of Rabobank

Michael brings a unique perspective on how Trump is just a symptom of our Liberal World Order collapsing in real time!

On the LNMS, he breaks down the sweeping global shifts across social, cultural, psychological, demographic, political, military, technological, and geopolitical dimensions.

What does this mean for investors? Listen in!

Bang Bang - New episode with the CEO of Tether

YT:

With Paolo I talked about:

-Can Tether still fail? -Tether’s Sci-Fi investments: Are they making the world a better place? -Are governments in emerging markets looking to bank USDT? -Whether stablecoin issuers are the better banks -Why Tether doesn't need to kiss anybody's ass -How many Bitcoiners are just like armchair football coaches, ready to criticize everything.

Bang Bang - New episode with the CEO of Tether

YT:

With Paolo I talked about:

-Can Tether still fail? -Tether’s Sci-Fi investments: Are they making the world a better place? -Are governments in emerging markets looking to bank USDT? -Whether stablecoin issuers are the better banks -Why Tether doesn't need to kiss anybody's ass -How many Bitcoiners are just like armchair football coaches, ready to criticize everything.

Anyone agree here?

This is the most compelling case for adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset in light of the coming AI disruption that I’ve heard.

Thanks to Matt Cole from Strive for coming on LNMS!

𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝗢𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿

What is happening currently happening with Trump’s tariff policies could have big repercussions down the line – repercussions an asset like Bitcoin could profit from. This is because of a shift in global capital flows that have been accelerated by President Trump’s tariff policies.

The U.S. administration’s top priority appears to be the recalibration of global trade, with a strong focus on significantly reducing the U.S. trade deficit. However, because the trade deficit is the mirror image of the capital account surplus, a smaller trade deficit would naturally coincide with a decline in capital inflows.

Simply put: All else being equal, a shrinking trade deficit means Americans would buy fewer goods from other countries. As a result, less foreign money would flow back into U.S. financial markets.

If this shift were to happen on a significant scale, there’s a real chance that the U.S. stock market may have already peaked in real terms, and that U.S. financial markets may gradually lose their status as the world’s dominant savings and investment hub. If so, Tesla stock being off 50% might not actually represent the buying opportunity everyone thinks it is…

In that case, there was even the possibility that we could see a dynamic similar to Japan’s experience, where the stock market peaked in the late 1980s and then entered a long-term decline that lasted for decades.

This is bullish Bitcoin. As global investors would be seeking alternatives, attention would naturally turn to other stores of value. Alongside gold, Bitcoin could emerge as a serious contender — a neutral, borderless asset with strong upside potential and growing acceptance in a multipolar financial world.

The way for the US to avoid the “Japan trajectory” would be to have domestic savers increasingly take up the slack of investing in its own stock market. Some of this brunt could be borne by the central bank.

According to the latest numbers, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) owns approximately 7% of the Japanese stock market through its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The BOJ became the largest owner of Japanese stocks in 2020, surpassing the Government Pension Investment Fund, and holds about 80% of the country's ETFs. It is also a top 10 shareholder in roughly 50% of Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed companies.

If the Fed is not going to step in, the US’s commercial banking sector will. In the background, measures are already being taken by the current deregulatory friendly US administration.

The most straightforward measure that will predominantly support the bond market, is to loosen the bank’s supplementary leverage ratio (SLR). This way, dealer balance sheets will be relieved, allowing them to grease the Treasury market’s plumbing.

The SLR is a key banking regulation rule, introduced after the 2008 financial crisis, to ensure that big banks don’t overleverage themselves (i.e., take on too many assets relative to their capital). It requires large banks to hold a minimum amount of Tier 1 capital (core capital, like common equity) against their total leverage exposure, including off-balance sheet items and low-risk assets like U.S. Treasuries and central bank reserves.

Through the relaxation of the SLR, balance sheet capacity should be freed up at big banks. This enables (read encourages) them to hold more Treasuries and facilitate Treasury market activity. While this will help juice up the Treasury market, it will likely require more alchemy than merely altering this one ratio.

No matter what route will be taken, all roads point to Bitcoin. Whether it be the central bank directly monetizing the stock market or the commercial banks that will “force” domestic savers to absorb bonds in quantities larger than they want at yields they wouldn’t accept on the open market, the path of least resistance toward financial repression will lead people to Bitcoin.

Over the past few days, Spencer Hakimian has been sounding the alarm about what’s happening in markets.

So I had to bring him on.

YT:

We cover:

-Is the US stock market facing a crisis of confidence? -What leverage does the US really have over China? -Why the bond market is crucial for the global economy -Is a failed bond auction looming? -Has the Fed already stepped

Over the past few days, Spencer Hakimian has been sounding the alarm about what’s happening in markets.

So I had to bring him on.

YT:

We cover:

-Is the US stock market facing a crisis of confidence? -What leverage does the US really have over China? -Why the bond market is crucial for the global economy -Is a failed bond auction looming? -Has the Fed already stepped in?

Also, here's my latest discussion with Ralf Kubli.

Enjoyed this recent talk and given he has his expertise in tokenization, I couldn’t resist picking his brain on the highly contentious.

YouTube:

Why is $97k the "magical number" in Bitcoinland for now.

It's got to do with Strategy's goal to qualify for the S&P 500.

To qualify for the S&P 500, a company must meet several criteria, including:

-Market Capitalization: At least ~$14.5 billion.

-Profitability: Positive GAAP earnings over the last four quarters (with the most recent quarter also being positive).

-Public Float: At least 10% of shares must be publicly available.

-Liquidity & Sector Classification: Sufficient trading volume and being in an eligible sector.

Srategy is meeting all of them, except for the profitability metric.

Why the FASB Rule Change Matters: Before Q1 2025, companies had to report Bitcoin under old accounting rules that only allowed for impairment losses (but not unrealized gains). The new FASB rules (effective in Q1 2025) allow fair value accounting, meaning unrealized BTC gains count towards GAAP earnings. This helps profitability, a key S&P 500 requirement.

So know. In light of some back-of-the-envelope calculation, we can state:

An end of quarter close (March 31, 2025) with BTC at ≈ $96.5K keeps pre-Q1 holdings profitable but barely offsets Q1 losses.

An end of quarter close with BTC at ≈ $97K ensures positive Q1 net income under FASB, increasing S&P 500 eligibility.

An end of quarter close with BTC > $100K creates a much stronger profitability case, reducing uncertainty.

So yes, $97K BTC is the real "safe" threshold right now. Should we move anywhere near this price level towards the end of March, things could become very interesting. Once the profitability threshold is met and eligibility for SPY inclusion increases, we should expect a lot of front-running (in MSTR) from market participants.

This situation is obviously highly reflexive.. Well, I guess, we are here and ready for it 😁🔥

The Trump administration is actively reshaping the global monetary system—right now.

YouTube:

Most discussions on this topic focus solely on the U.S. perspective. But what about the rest of the world?

That’s why I brought on Jim Bianco. Though he’s American, he’s uniquely positioned to challenge the U.S.-centric narrative and dive into the bigger picture: • How is this financial rewiring impacting Europe? • Is the U.S. tying itself in knots with contradictory policies? • Could America’s moves end up making the whole world poorer? We tackle these questions and more—don’t miss

Trump’s chaotic tariffs get all the headlines, but the real story is deeper: major monetary and geoeconomic shifts are underway.

I broke it all down with

—what’s happening, why it matters, and what it means for the future.

This is a conversation I learnt a ton. And so will you!

Check it out👇🏻🔥

Explaining the QT dynamics👇🏻

So QT is slowed down by 80%, from $25b to $5b. This means that the Fed is slowing down the pace at which it reduces its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds.

Instead of letting a large amount of bonds roll off its balance sheet each month (which removes money from the financial system), it will now reduce them by only $5 billion per month.

The $20 billion that the Fed was reducing each month but now isn’t effectively stays in the financial system.

Said differently: the Fed is reinvesting the remaining $20 billion into new Treasuries, keeping that money circulating in the economy rather than tightening financial conditions.

Why has the Fed decided to taper QT significantly just now?

Well, it has to do with the debt ceiling dynamics. Because the debt ceiling in the United States has not been resolved (might only be resolved in late summer), the US government will most likely have to drain their bank account at the Fed (called TGA).

With TGA falling, liquidity will be pushed into to the financial sector. What the Fed is concerned about is the time, when the debt ceiling is resolved and the TGA will need to be refilled. This will suck liquidity out of the commercial banking syshem. With QT significantly tampered and the Fed reinvesting the proceeds into government bonds, banks will supported and don‘t have to give up to many reserves for thr refill, helping to avoid any stress in the reserve system.

One of the main drivers is that the Fed wants to avoid another 2019-style repo crisis, rather than having to be reactive and having to perform emergency OMOs all of a sudden.

Here‘s what happened in 2019 as a recap 👇🏻

September 15, 2019 was a tax deadline, pulling about $100B out of markets as large corporations paid their dues to the IRS and funds flooded into the TGA.

Meanwhile, the Treasury issued new T-Bills to rebuild cash reserves following the post-debt ceiling resolution in August, draining another $50-100B as big banks and institutions absorbed the securities.

During this time, the Fed continued reducing its balance sheet (QT) down to $3.76T, but the balance sheet did not leave enough slack for unexpected cash drains to the system, such as corporate taxes and Treasury issuance.

Also, reserves were largely hoarded by a few of the larger banking institutions due to Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules and a higher IOER at 2.1% vs the ON RRP rate of 1.7% - a 40 bp spread.

This caused a liquidity crisis in the US repo market because bank reserves held at the Fed ($1.36T) were too low and repo lending dried up. Banks weren’t able to access each other’s reserves to fund daily operations.

Now, this is what the Fef is avoiding this time around.

Last point on this for now:

As explained already, slowing the runoff of Treasuries reduces the supply in the market, pushing their prices higher (assuming demand remains steady) and lowering yields.

Lower yields mean cheaper borrowing, increasing liquidity as investors seek higher returns in assets like stocks and crypto.

Meanwhile, the Fed maintaining its MBS runoff isn’t a major concern for risk assets since MBS (mortgage backef securities) are more directly tied to the housing market, affecting home sales, construction, and refinancing.

While MBS runoff does have indirect effects—reducing economic activity in housing-related sectors like home improvement retailers—the impact is more gradual. And we haven‘t seen that many runoffs because people are in low mortgage rates for long-term and are not refinancing into higher rates.

For risk assets, a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield from 4.3% to 4% has a much bigger influence than a 0.2% rise in mortgage rates due to MBS pressure.

Latest LNMS interview👇🏻

YouTube:

Truflation is the talk of the town! More and more people are using to gauge where markets are going.

I wanted to know why it is special and set down with Stefan Rust, CEO and founder of Truflation.

-How is Truflation different from traditional inflation metrics? -What makes it more accurate? -Why is it a leading signal, giving investor a potential edge?

Check out the conversation🔥💪🏻

This was a true masterclass for me from Aahan, founder and CEO of Prometheus Research

YouTube: youtu.be/6rg5sO914VU

In very clear terms and steps, he explained to me how any serious investor needs to think and approach markets.

We talked about the three basic concepts growth, inflation and liquidity and analyzed what components to look for in each.

Enjoy and please retweet if you like the content🏋️‍♀️

For the latest LNMS epsiode, I had a fascinating discussion with economist Thomas Hougan, a senior fellow at the

YouTube:

We talked about:

-Bitcoin as base money – what it means and why it matters -How base money in today’s monetary & financial system differs from Bitcoin -What the economy and credit would look like under a Bitcoin Standard

Some thoughts on the SBR announcement

-> The U.S. officially labels Bitcoin a strategic asset. This is quite big, confirming Bitcoin’s significant geoeconomic and geopolitical role

-> Expect to see more 13F filings by sovereign wealth funds

-> Sovereign and supranational bodies (like IMF) will have a harder time justifying anti-bitcoin policies

-> The probability that individual states in the U.S. will put bitcoin on their balance sheets just increased

-> Should individual states own Bitcoin, the probability that the US congress agrees to something like the Lummis Bitcoin bill (buying up to 1 million BTC over 5 years) increases as well

However: Labelling Bitcoin as strategic does have its downsides though

-> The establishment of a SBR is a “careful what you wish for”-moment

-> High likelihood the US will approach Bitcoin the same way they approach oil, gold, or critical infrastructure, meaning they will seek control, influence, and risk management over its supply and stability

-> In times of severe crises, we could see government commandeer or nationalize bitcoin miners. Or assume legal authority to aggressively seize private BTC holdings out of national interest

-> With Bitcoin being deemed strategic, centralizing forces around supply, custody, mining and development will intensify (Bessent already called for bringing crypto on shore)

-> If you understand the thinking of nation states around financial rails, labeling Bitcoin as strategic does not solely mean the government will buy bitcoin but lead to “oh we should control this network”

->There’s the risk that the US gov will not want to leave further Bitcoin protocol development to chance. Imagine a scenario where an army of NIST engineers, backed by virtually unlimited funding, suddenly steps in to influence or direct its evolution.

Remember, both the Secretary of Treasury (Bessent) and Commerce (Lutnick) have held Bitcoin in the past and understand its significance.

What is widely missed but hidden in the EO document called “Presidential Actions” (not the Factsheet broadly shared), is: “The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce SHALL develop strategies for acquiring additional Government BTC…”

So, the actual text of the EO directs them to develop strategies to buy Bitcoin. This is very bullish price if you ask me.

There are many budget neutral strategies for acquiring Bitcoin.

-> Use USD surplus in Exchange Stabiliation Fund (ESF), netting to $39B

-> Revalue gold holdings, netting to about $800B

-> Demand IMF to include BTC in SDR or sell SDR for BTC

-> Issuing Bitcoin Bonds (Bit Bonds) -> Best option IMO, will examine in a future LNMS episode

-> Sell holdings from strategic cheese reserve held in Missouri caves, netting to about $3B (btw, hope this is Swiss cheese the US gov is holding. Every other cheese is shitcoin cheese)

-> Use tariffs proceeds to buy Bitcoin

-> Use DOGE savings?

This is an episode you don't want to miss.

YouTube:

I got to talk to

from Checkonchain about Bitcoin's latest price performance, the risk of entering a bear market, the key price levels to watch and the true meaning of the 69,420 price target🤪

As always, a lot of real signal from the man himself

Here‘s my latest discussion for LNMS

YouTube: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7oc4pkP2JdA

It‘s with the very outspoken, yet controversial „Bitcoin Maxi, Not Bitcoin Maxi“ Fred Krueger

He dropped quite some punchlines during the show.

I also tried to challenge him on a few things (especially his view on Solana😅)

Enjoy and thanks for liking, as always🙏

Next LNMS episode

I just published this show with the famous

This was quite a fun episode.

His statement, „not all boomers are stupid“ was quite entertaining and obviously true as we rookies can still learn a lot from older generations!

We should have a ton of respect for what people like him built, despite the fiat system wreaking havoc on us today! Thank you🦾🤝

Enjoy and don‘t forget to like and comment! This really helps the show!

New US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said:

“𝑊𝑒'𝑟𝑒 𝑔𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑜 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑈𝑆 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐴𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒. 𝑊𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑔𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑜 𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐼 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑘 𝑖𝑡'𝑠 𝑔𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑜 𝑏𝑒 𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔.”

CT is still wondering what Bessent meant by this.

Here’s one (likely) interpretation:

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘀 (𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗳𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗢𝘄𝗻𝘀):

The US government (US Treasury) owns a lot of gold. Think of the US Treasury like the government’s bank account.

Revaluing this gold to today’s market price would increase the US Treasury’s assets.

The US Treasury currently holds 261,498,926.241 troy ounces of gold, equivalent to approximately 8,134 tons. At today’s market price of $2,900 per troy ounce, the total value amounts to around $758 billion.

However, this gold is still recorded at a book value of $42 per troy ounce, totaling just $11 billion. This means the market value is nearly 68 times higher than the official book value.

By revaluing its gold reserves to reflect current market value, the government would instantly recognize an additional $747 billion in assets—effectively realizing a substantial increase in its wealth without selling a single ounce of gold.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗟𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 (𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗢𝘄𝗲𝘀):

To balance this out, the government issues "gold certificates" (fancy IOUs backed by gold) to the Federal Reserve (the US central bank).

These certificates tell the Fed: “Hey, we now officially say our gold is worth more. Here’s proof you can use to balance your books.”

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘀 (𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗳𝗳 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱’𝘀 𝗕𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗲𝗲𝘁):

The Fed receives those new gold certificates from the Treasury.

These certificates increase the Fed’s assets because they represent valuable claims backed by US gold.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗟𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 (𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝗢𝘄𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱):

Here’s where it gets interesting: the Fed, in return, credits the US Treasury’s checking account (called the Treasury General Account, or TGA) with new money equal to the increased value of the gold.

The Treasury can now spend this newly credited money on public projects, debt repayment, or stimulus—without borrowing or raising taxes.

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗜𝘀 𝗟𝗶𝗸𝗲 "𝗦𝗲𝗰𝗿𝗲𝘁" 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝗤𝗘):

Normally, the Fed prints money (QE) by buying bonds from the market to pump cash into the economy.

But in this case, the Fed is not buying anything from the public. Instead, it’s crediting the Treasury’s account simply because the gold is now valued higher.

Result: The Treasury now has more cash to spend, similar to QE, but without the Fed purchasing assets from banks or investors.

Here‘s the latest LNMS episode. This time with Shezhan from Lava.

We once more talk about Bitcoin-backed loans, why the Bitcoin blockchain is a more elegant solution for this than Ethereum (or other blockchains) and how you as a private individual can use Lava yourself:

Thanks for liking and commenting🔥🙏

#Bitcoin #non-custodial #borrowing #Coinbase #loans #cryptocurrency #lending #liquidationrisk #oracles #wrapped #financial #security #DLCs #smart #contracts #stablecoins #interest #riskmanagement #fintech

This one was a banger!

delivered a true masterclass on money and its intricacies.

We talked about the differences betwen cash, currency and credit, what money is, why Bitcoin is better money and how fiat money is actually created. Is it the central banks, the commercial banks, the Basel Committee, the Treasury? Hint: It‘s more like a free for all!

Youtube:

#Bitcoin #macroeconomics #creditmoney #currency #financialsystem #BitcoinAge #layeredmoney #cash #globalbankingdollar #moneycreation #inflation #centralbanks #demand #treasuries #reserves #commoditymoney #bankmoney #BTC

I believe it’s crucial to engage with people who have different perspectives, which is why I really enjoyed this discussion with Tom Dunleavy.

We covered topics like celebrity coins, the role of moral judgment in financial decisions, and Ethereum’s foundation war!

YouTube: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4uRqGt2qOog

Thanks for sharing it around if you like

Time for Less Noise More Signal again!

This time with Bill Barhydt

We talked about Bitcoin, the future of banking, the impact of AI as well as Bitcoin's benefits for the global south!

YouTube: youtu.be/WG8cB7A5RKs

Enjoy. Leave a comment and a like!

#Bitcoin #AI #Banking #Crypto #FutureOfFinance #BorrowingAgainstBitcoin #GlobalBanking #CreditSystems #Stablecoins #Remittances