The Bulls Last Stand.
My latest analysis piece is out for Checkonchain subscribers assessing c onditions at the critical $95k level.
It's do or die now folks.
_Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️
Helping navigate #Bitcoin's volatility Newsletter checkonchain.com Onchain Analyst _checkonchain Charting Suite charts.checkonchain.com
One of the notable reasons 2025 underperformed is a lot of Bitcoin capital was coaxed into buying expensive Treasury company stocks, which then proceeded to decline by 90% or more, incinerating value.
The firms didn't buy BTC volumes anywhere close to the amount investors gave them.
Stay humble, stack sats, is the wisest meme in Bitcoin, and it comes from the experience of Bitcoiners who have already learned this lesson.
The new shinny thing is there to take your Bitcoin. Everybody is a scammer. The solution, is to stay humble, and stack sats.
The promoters will return. Ignore them, they want your bitcoin.
Stay humble, stack sats, and focus on your craft and family instead.
Loading quoted post…
Stay humble, and stack sats.
Welcomed a new Bitcoiner into the world on blockheight 913,569.
Actual magic.
If you have been in Bitcoin for a cycle or more before today, you have experienced a once in a lifetime event.
You built the conviction to hold an asset which the entire world told you was destined for nothing. Literally everyone said you were wrong, at scale.
That character building dynamic, is no longer the case. Wall Street, government policy, and even the media is at minimum less negative, but mostly now positive.
Building conviction in Bitcoin now is easy, folks just pass off responsibility to their money manager.
If you stood the hardcore test of building, forming, challenging, and reshaping your conviction over years, amidst the most hostile social environment against Bitcoin we will probably ever see, well done.
Yes the asset is awesome.
But the lessons you learned, and the trust you now have in your own decisions and ability to reason, cannot be replicated.
You lived a once in a lifetime experience.
Put it to work in your life, and make it better.
8/12/2025, 1 engagement
Always have a great conversation with Pascal.
We covered the chaotic selloff in Bitcoin, as well as how I think about market structure during volatile periods.
Loading quoted post…
I have three Bitaxes on my desk.
Not because I ever expect to win a block.
I own them to support the folks developing and building out the open source alternatives to the incumbents
Its insignificant today. But it may not be tomorrow.
Loading quoted post…
Once in every Bitcoin cycle, folks emerge with a thousand reason why the declining block subsidy will lead to the eventual death of the 🌽
In my latest piece for _checkonchain subscribers, I lay out my thoughts around the long-term viability of Bitcoins PoW security system.
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/securing-the-bag-my-take-on-bitcoins
2/11/2025, 1 engagement
For all the chess players in the room, what is your favourite piece, and why is it the Knight?
Gold is absolutely ripping.
Amazing to watch.
every $300 jump in the gold price is 1x entire Bitcoin market cap.
If gold can move up by several trillions of dollars in a year...
2/11/2025, 1 engagement
hello Nostr
The latest episode of the _checkonchain Rough Consensus podcast is live with my market mentor Doc Severson.
Doc has taught me so much about market psychology, and I have used many of these skills to improve my understanding of Bitcoin onchain data.
I really enjoyed this conversation, and I have no doubt others will too.
Inflationary Illusions.
My latest #Bitcoin research piece is out for _checkonchain subscribers, examining why this cycle, ATH, and market feels different to prior ones.
What if we never made a real ATH at all?
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/inflationary-illusions
Today I learned that the _checkonchain newsletter is the #1 substack publication in Australia 🦘
Feeling very humbled, thank you to all of our subscribers who helped us get here.
The latest _checkonchain subscriber Q&A session is live.
I cover three topics in a 1hr video:
- Why I hold gold alongside #Bitcoin
- How I think about $BTC Miners
- A routine of metrics I use to assess blood is in the streets before I stack sats.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/how-to-identify-blood-in-the-streets
Playing with Fire.
My latest market analysis piece is live for Checkonchain subscribers.
Given everything happening in Brazil, I wonder if a decentralised, uncensorable, scarce, digital, global monetary asset might be useful for the world right about now.
Is anyone building something like this?
The Sell-side Risk Ratio is one of my all time favourite #Bitcoin metrics.
It is a tool that helps track trend exhaustion, market instability, and equilibrium.
The Sell-side Risk Ratio Masterclass is now live for _checkonchain subscribers.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/masterclass-sell-side-risk-ratio
The latest episode of the Rough Consensus podcast is live with Joe Caralsare.
This conversation was an absolute cracker, and Joe challenges so many of my priors throughout.
I think you're going to enjoy this one, I certainly did.
In case folks didn't know, there is a full suite of Bitcoin charts available over at charts.checkonchain.com
All free, onchain, ETFs, derivatives and comparisons with TradFi.
Folks, one pro tip I recommend for everyone, is to ignore all commentary related to exchange balances that isn't coming from a serious professional analyst (even then, question it...).
Few data providers do a good job tracking the wallets, few analysts understand the data, and what is available is almost exclusively noise and click bait. The nuances are beyond ridiculous, and the problem is endlessly dynamic.
inflows, outflows, balances and supply squeezes. It has no relevance to price or the market, and should be ignored in the vast majority of circumstances.
Don't whale watch kids.
Since everyone is jumping over to Nostr, I wanted to share my latest analysis video from behind the paywalled with you all.
Enjoy!
My latest piece is out for checkonchain subscribers.
this one looks at the tremendous sellside that the Bitcoin market has absorbed over the last 6 months.
I also compare the conditions to 2019, which is the most similar period by far.
