Peruvian Bull

Money printer go BRRRRRRRR

Anthropic is trying to IPO at a $2 trillion valuation while losing $40B a year

Enjoyed a birthday dinner with my brother! Steaks and good wine 🍷

Thanks for all the birthday wishes

Isn’t this like trezor hack number 2,567?

This is ridiculous

That’s only A third of a single day of government spending btw

Also, the previous buyback were 2B, then 4B, and now 6

The need for managing liquidity on the long end of the treasury bond market is increasing

This was a great episode! Go give it a listen

I believe Bitcoin represents a SPIRITUAL WAR and not merely a financial one

The central bankers print money and there fore steal your TIME, siphoning your most valuable asset on earth

This is also why it’s stupid to say “Powell or Warsh will reform the Fed from within! They’ll crash everything because inflation is morally wrong!”

No they won’t. They have the MOST TO LOSE from the system failing, and the most to gain if things continue to debase

They threw $90 billion at the market in two days on July 30 and 31

Took USDJPY down from 163 to 156

And now it’s already about halfway back to when they started this whole fiasco 10 days ago

$90 billion, the same as the GDP of the entire country of Paraguay, has bought Japan 20 days of slightly stronger yen

Once we go back to 163 we’re gonna go through this whole circus again

Very likely

It appears that the rot goes much deeper than we think

Incredibly sad to see. I went to college here….

“Let the Goyim deal in the real world”

“This is how the Jew make money, selling short shipping futures”

There isn’t anything more condemning than this Epstein email.

At the bottom of the rabbit hole you find out the T is silent

Was anyone affected by the Cold card vulnerability?

You are what you, do not what you say you do

BANK OF JAPAN MIGHT HAVE INTERVENED IN THE CURRENCY MARKET.

USD/JPY pair dropped from 163.6 to 159.5 in the last 6 hours, a 2.5% move.

This type of move doesn't happen without central bank intervention.

The BOJ makes its rate decision tomorrow.

If this drop is real intervention, it means officials are moving before the decision to avoid a much bigger yen selloff if tomorrow's outcome disappoints markets.

This has been my screensaver for months now

A perennial reminder to go your own way, to forge your own path, to not accept the beliefs and habits of the crowd

White pill your LIFE.

Don’t fall for that doomer shit. You can do anything, be anything. All it takes is you deciding to make a change.

How is this not insider Trading?

This is the real Dollar Endgame 👀

America is the best country in the world and it isn’t even close

That being said, we could be so much greater than that which we are

Truly is the land of opportunity

Saylor bros are struggling rn 😅

If you’re wondering what a bear market in bitcoin looks like, this is it

Peak doomerism right now. This is where diamond hands are forged.

I went on What Bitcoin Did with

recently to talk about the dollar endgame, Japan macro, and how bitcoin solves Triffins dilemma!

Check it out:

Abandoned tunnel hikes with my brother

Great episode on current state of the market

https://open.spotify.com/episode/62frX2AxpEBrNk0HB3jQUu?si=QyC-FBe2Tq2_haGaAQA-Iw

Against Bitcoin, all shitcoins trend towards zero

My father and I are repairing two broken Bitcoin miners today that were running in the basement of my studio

It’s so great to learn about engineering, Bitcoin and spend time with my 74 year old father. Don’t get many moments like these.

Saw this in traffic today

Incredibly based

Guys it’s all over bitcoin is down 6%

It’s never been so over. The entire protocol is now dead according to everyone on Twitter.

The use Case, all the nodes, the miners, the hard supply cap

All of it is useless because some people on Twitter told me so!!!

I’m gonna tell him a bitcoin and invest it all in the government bonds yielding -3%

Seattle views today while working

Efficient markets is a lie

This is how you get all the hot girls

Bailey fucked over retail badly

He will not recover from this

Beautiful day in Seattle

If someone else can delete your money, it’s not yours

The funny part is, he’s right

New YouTube Studio is coming along 👀

New podcast out with

on

talking about the slow motion train wreck that is the Japanese monetary crisis and the knock on effects for stocks, gold, and bitcoin

Check it out!

If you keep waiting for perfect conditions, you’ll never do it

Sometimes you just gotta take the leap. Start the business, move to the new city, ask the girl out.

What are you afraid of losing when nothing in life is truly yours?

Hosting a Bitcoin Bazaar marketplace booth today as a fundraiser for the non profit Cypherpunk Institute in Seattle!

I’m auctioning a signed copy of my book and a copy of Bitcoin Art Magazine for the foundation.

You can see the magnanimous

selling his wares on the right 👊

Support decentralized economies ⚡️

Modern day UFO disclosure is not hitting like the tin foil hats thought it would 40 years ago.

I know a guy who was deep into the UFO investigations in the 1970s-1990s, reading all the books, listening to Art Bell, etc. he thought if real disclosure came out that the world would fall into pandemonium

Great macro podcast with Capital Flows and Marty Bent on

I especially agree with the idea that future political campaigns are won by who has the best short form edit 🤣

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GpBTr0BKqAD0ttG3ETplL?si=5B22w6GPR8WSaLdHJRiR8w

For now

Someone is buying a massive amount of $20,000 an ounce gold call options

this applies to almost every problem in the West

Me too, bro. Me too.

banger

BITCOINER DINNER with the greats!

Talking Bitcoin circular economies, the end of fiat, and the best places to travel to (Julian and I say Japan but Paul is a Costa Rica Maxi)

nostr:npub1xwmyzp64xx03kw9ecd7fzsj3e9dgwah6an0rdng0cc6ux4dswwjs28pyyc nostr:npub1cv2ph4qwumjlx4lxkq647s787dvgyvlwgxfghmza0mcglqsq8pnq26w7j8

The dollar milkshake is one of the most important macro theories of the last 20 years…

It was developed by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, and it starts with a simple structural fact: the dollar isn’t just a currency, it’s the operating system of global trade and finance.

every country needs dollars to buy oil, service debt, and settle international transactions. that external demand is something no other currency on earth has. not the euro, not the yen, not the yuan. the dollar is the only fiat with structural demand from outside its own borders.

this creates a feedback loop. when global stress rises, capital doesn’t flee to safety in some abstract sense, it flees to dollars specifically, because dollar-denominated debt has to be repaid in dollars. a Chilean copper miner, a Nigerian oil producer, a South Korean car manufacturer, all of them borrowed in USD, all of them generate revenue in their local currency, and all of them need to convert that local currency into dollars to service their debt.

when the dollar rises, that conversion becomes more expensive, forcing more dollar buying, which strengthens the dollar further, which tightens the screws on every other dollar borrower simultaneously. financial stress abroad doesn’t weaken the dollar. it strengthens it.

But the craziest part is what happens when the dollar weakens. dollar bears see DXY falling and declare the end of American monetary dominance. what they’re actually watching is the system reloading. cheaper dollars make dollar-denominated borrowing more attractive globally, so more eurodollar loans get created, more EM corporates issue USD debt, more offshore dollar credit gets extended through the eurodollar system, which operates entirely outside the Fed’s regulatory reach. that’s more fuel going into the milkshake.

when the cycle inevitably turns and the dollar rips back, all those new borrowers get squeezed at once, capital floods back into U.S. markets, and American equities and bonds catch the bid while everyone else bleeds.

that capital recycling is a big reason why $1 invested in the S&P 500 in 1980 became $98.68 by end of 2023. that same $1 in global equities ex-U.S. became $19.63. the milkshake explains the gap.

Johnson is clear that this isn’t sustainable forever. the U.S. fiscal situation is a disaster, the debt trajectory ends badly, and eventually the system breaks. but the sequencing matters. before the dollar dies, it probably kills everything else first. every country running the same loose monetary policy as the U.S. is doing so without the reserve currency backstop, which makes them more vulnerable, not equally vulnerable.

the U.S. is the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry, and a falling DXY is a coiled spring, not a death rattle.

the lower it goes, the harder it snaps back.

Dollar falls last in the global economic collapse

Dollar Milkshake still in full swing

My favorite Jordan Peterson quote

the IEA announced the largest coordinated oil release in history on March 11th: 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Brent was trading around $103 that day.

it's now been almost four weeks. Brent closed last week above $111. the price went UP.

the math never worked- the world burns 105 million barrels of oil per day. 400 million barrels covers less than 4 days of global consumption, and barely 20 days of normal Hormuz flows.

the US contribution alone, 172 million barrels, takes 120 days to deliver at max discharge rates, with a 13 day lag before any of it even reaches the market. so the "emergency" reserve has a two week shipping delay.

meanwhile Hormuz is running at roughly a seventh of normal traffic. the IRGC said yesterday the strait "will never return to its previous status, especially for the US and Israel." Iran rejected the 45 day ceasefire proposal. Trump set a Tuesday deadline to reopen it or he hits bridges and power plants.

QatarEnergy, Kuwait Petroleum, Bapco, Aramco, and ADNOC have all either shut production or declared force majeure.

the strategic reserve was designed for temporary supply disruptions. a hurricane, a pipeline outage, maybe a few weeks of chaos. not an open ended war over the chokepoint that moves 20% of global energy.

you can't fix a structural crisis like this with a stockpile that covers 4 days.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/15/strategic-oil-release-may-calm-markets-but-cannot-fix-hormuz-disruption

“It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong.”

― Voltaire

Really brilliant commentary

If we nuke New York every year, think about how good it is for business

Think of all the jobs created cleaning up all the rubble

Think of all the mortuaries that will have to deal with all the dead bodies

think of all the construction workers having to rebuild huge sections of the city every year

Isn’t the destruction of durable goods good for our economy? 😊😊😊

every empire that ever waged a war while running 120% debt to GDP learned the same lesson

empires don’t collapse from the battlefield. they collapse from the balance sheet.

day 35 of the Iran war and the situation is spiraling

an F-15E just went down over central Iran today, the first confirmed US fighter jet loss of the conflict. a second plane crashed near the Strait of Hormuz. one pilot recovered, the other is still missing.

meanwhile Iran hit Kuwait’s main refinery with drones, struck a gas facility in the UAE, and launched another barrage at Saudi Arabia’s eastern province. Bahrain activated air raid sirens for the second time this week.

Brent crude is sitting at $112.42, up $34 from a year ago. strait traffic has collapsed from 138 vessels per day to somewhere between 10 and 20, which is a 90% reduction in throughput for a chokepoint that handles 20% of global oil supply.

Iran is running a permission based transit system now: Chinese, Russian, Indian, Pakistani, and Filipino flagged ships can pass. everyone else sits and waits. the UK hosted a 40 country summit yesterday to discuss reopening the strait and accomplished exactly nothing. Trump wasn’t even on the call because he says the blocked strait “doesn’t affect the US.”

Trump is now threatening to hit Iranian power plants, desalination facilities, and bridges if Iran doesn’t reopen Hormuz by next week. he already struck a medical research institute in Tehran, a Red Crescent warehouse, and a century old bridge near Karaj today.

Iran’s military responded by saying the war continues until the US faces “humiliation and surrender.” Pakistan is trying to broker talks. Russia and Turkey called for an immediate ceasefire. nobody is listening to anybody.

Foreign central banks have dumped U.S. Treasuries to lowest level since 2012 amid Iran war pressure, per FT.

Banger ⚡️

the east asian energy crisis is getting worse by the day

let's sum up what's happened so far:

the Philippines became the first country to declare a national energy emergency. government offices moved to a 4 day work week, and President Marcos says grounding planes is a "distinct possibility." their fuel supply dropped from 57 days to 45 days in less than a month.

South Korea is telling citizens to take shorter showers and charge phones during the day. they're considering banning naphtha exports, which means petrochemical production starts seizing up.

Japan released 80 MILLION barrels from strategic reserves, the largest drawdown since they created the system in 1978. covers about 45 days.

95% of their crude comes from the Middle East. their refineries are canceling fuel exports and cutting production to prioritize domestic supply. (talked about this in my newsletter)

Vietnam has 20 days of reserves. they just panic-bought 4 million barrels from non-Middle East sources, which covers six more days.

India is running out of cooking gas. restaurants are shutting down, lines wrapping around LPG distributors in multiple cities. 90% of their LPG imports go through Hormuz.

New Zealand has less than 40 days of combined fuel left, gas stations are going dry in parts of the country, and the government is dusting off 1979 era rationing laws.

China and Thailand have both banned or restricted fuel exports to hoard domestic supply. Singapore and Indonesian petrochemical companies are declaring force majeure.

the IEA released a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves and then said it won't be enough. Brent peaked at $126, still sitting above $90 today.

the crisis deepens in East Asia.

I hiked in the mountains of British Columbia the other day with

Truly incredible discussion with one of the smartest Bitcoiner I know.

And the nature was incredibly beautiful to boot- felt most like being on a tab of LSD

I came back, refreshed, energized, and ready to go to work.

Getting outside and touching grass is literally the most important thing you can do for your mental health!

Gold is the old man’s bitcoin

It’s fascinating to me that the same people who said that bitcoin was dead two months ago are now completely silent on the fact that bitcoin is up against gold 34% in a single month

This is how important the relationship is between the Yen and Oil- since the outbreak of the war, USDJPY and the price of WTI Crude Futures has been moving essentially in lockstep.

Japan imports 97% of its crude oil, and has virtually no energy independence since Fukushima incident in 2011. After that reactor leaked radioactive waste, all nuclear reactors across the country were shut down as a safety measure.

In order to understand Japan and global capital- you need to grasp energy as well.

History is nothing but a pack of lies agreed upon

-Napoleon

Your “free and fair press”, gentlemen

They definitely aren’t influenced by the military industrial complex

TRUMP: WAR WILL LAST AS LONG AS NECESSARY

IRAQ-> AFGHANISTAN-> IRAN

THE WAR IS MEANT TO BE CONTINUOUS

the economy is just boomers, AI companies, and influencers at this point