It only takes 10%.

In “The Discourse on Voluntary Servitude” Étienne de la Boétie examined some simple facts to reach a very optimistic conclusion for Liberty. Rulers are always a tiny minority compared to the governed. Active collaboration from the majority is necessary to sustain any regime, no matter how authoritarian. Therefore the governed need only withdraw their consent and stop their active collaboration with the regime to topple it.

However this runs in the face of another fact, highlighted by the Milgram experiment, Stanford prison experiments and others: humans instinctively follow authority and obey orders. There is an ancestral tribal instinct to comply with the generally recognised leaders and believe the official narrative.

How can any revolution succeed if the majority tends to obey and trust their rulers?

Firstly a revolution does not need a majority to succeed, just an “irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men”, in the words of Samuel Adams. The successful American revolution was famously sparked and carried out by under 3% of the population, although that number is disputed.

Secondly once critical mass is reached around an alternative narrative, the tribal instinct works in favour of the new group. There is a new set of leaders which contest the “official” rulers and narrative and which in turn provide a locus of obedience. A rebel is no longer a lone wolf fighting against his need to belong, but rather a member of the new tribe, with its own loyalty system and peer pressure. The ruling regime is now the “other”, the common enemy that is oppressing you.

What is the magic number that the revolution needs to succeed? There are many competing theories, but a good rule of thumb is 10% of the population. It’s enough to generate a sufficiently organised movement and to take action powerful enough to effect regime change. It’s enough to infiltrate all levels of society and contest the official narrative, whether it be the divine right of kings or faith in government fiat.

We can see this effectiveness in the case of the Bitcoin Revolution. No fiat system, fractional reserve bank or tax authority can withstand a 10% capital flight. A bank run or a currency flight will also spark a reinforcing feedback loop as a large part of the “neutral” population will join out of fear and self-interest. Bitcoin’s peaceful revolution does not need violent uprisings, political change or pro-Bitcoin governments. All that it needs is for 10% of people to withhold consent from fiat, refuse to save in depreciating government currencies and opt out of centralised payment systems.

As fiat currencies depreciate, banks become mired in bureaucracy and surveillance and governments weaponise payments for political censorship, the number of bitcoiners will continue to grow organically. Bitcoin’s 4 year boom-bust cycle will also entice ever larger waves of new interest that later learn enough to become convinced bitcoiners. Gradually, then suddenly the revolution will just happen. Even if your grandma never learns to self-custody, your children will.

Many governments will fight back, but for most they will realise the danger far too late to be effective, just causing trouble and hurting people. Others will try to push their alternative: CBDCs, but this will just reveal the stark contrast between private, decentralised, voluntary Bitcoin and centrally planned surveillance fiat.

Eventually Bitcoin wins. The most peaceful, constructive and gradual revolution in history.