Dylan LeClair

Have seen lots of NOSTR posts today on X. Gaining steam following the Telegram news by the looks of it.

"And then they fight you..."

Value of all #bitcoin at the price they last moved. $BTC

Bitcoin Accelerationism.

Bicoin Accelerationism embodies all that Effective Accelerationism (e/acc) represents, yet it posits that Bitcoin is crucial in ushering in this future. Let’s explore:

First, let’s break down what e/acc stands for, and why bitcoin is inevitably intertwined in this technological movement.

Effective Accelerationism posits that the universe inherently aims to optimize itself, constantly expanding and evolving. This expansion is seen as an unstoppable force, with the future always building upon and surpassing the present, and the main driver of this is ‘techno-capital’. Said more simply, ‘techno-capital’ is the force which will change/fix the world.

Now, let’s turn to bitcoin:

Similar to AI, bitcoin mining faces never ending scrutiny regarding its “energy use”. In reality, mining serves as a pivotal tool for energy grid load-balancing and waste energy mitigation. It's one of the only consumers of energy that can power off on a moments notice entirely subject to market demand.

By empowering location agnostic energy monetization while enforcing ever increasing efficiency through the difficulty adjustment, bitcoin mining doesn't waste energy, but rather consumes energy waste. With the brutal reality of continuously rising network hash rate subsequently increasing mining difficulty, inefficient operators are driven out via market forces, while the increased difficulty simultaneously reinforces the asset’s supply inelasticity and programmatically increasing marginal cost of production.

The significance? There is now a global opportunity cost for energy waste that exists anywhere found by satellite signal, thereby directly incentivizing and quantifying the chase of Moore's Law AND the ascent of the Kardashev scale.

Bitcoin adheres to e/acc principles, and metaphorically aligns with the natural order and thermodynamic laws, by adeptly transforming forms of energy into an immutable ledger of subjective value.

Its 21,000,000 capped supply mirrors the finite energy in closed systems, a nod to the conservation law. Bitcoin mining, which channels raw energy into computation, goes to securing and extending property rights to $800b of pseudonymous global wealth. The process of elegantly converting energy in any form into an immutable ledger of absolute monetary scarcity brings about order from entropy.

Do not shy away from energy production nor energy consumption. Bitcoin's Proof of Work is not a weakness, but an absolute source of strength. Lean in.

As a store of value, bitcoin epitomizes a free market for capital, underpinned by the energy securing it, SHA-256 cryptography, and a global consensus of distributed nodes, each user acting in their own self-interest. The key principle is that value is not derived by decree, but rather subjectively by self preserving individuals through economic incentives.

As a unit of account, bitcoin is the ruler against which the vast technological gains of past and future decades will be quantified and measured against most accurately, given its attributes and free market emergence.

In contrast, political currency, issued by increasingly corrupted institutions, will continue to devalue against everything we hold dear; fundamentally incompatible with a future where AI brings about abundance through the reduction in the cost of everyday services.

This contrast between two opposing forces has never been more evident, with tech advances accelerating by day while the issuance of additional political currency aims to offset said deflationary gains to keep an evermore fragile and faltering system of debt and IOUs from collapsing under its own weight.

As censorship-resistant money, bitcoin is pivotal for a future where censorship and surveillance by the state and/or techno-monopolies are more powerful and potentially oppressive than ever.

As a bearer asset, bitcoin stands out as one of the few possessions that can be truly owned in a digital native world riddled with third party custodians and counterparties. Possession can be custodied literally in one's mind, not as the liability of a captured and corrupted institution operating under the long-reach of the state.

Lastly, it is an inevitable reality that all monetary mediums compete in perpetuity, and the Darwinian process of a free market monetary medium monetizing from scratch, not by decree but by free market forces, has only occurred successfully a rare few times in human history, and never with the speed or global scale currently underway.

Bitcoin Accelerationism is an acknowledgment of this all; the growing surveillance apparatus of the state, the attempt to restrict and reduce global energy production/consumption, and the precarious position of the global political currency experiment that threatens to undermine the past and present gains brought about by technological innovation. In e/acc terms, bitcoin is THE capital in ‘techno-capital’.

In a world where the very medium in which we store our time, labor, and value is led by individuals more interested in looting the coffers than in the long-term health or vitality of our society, it’s time to lean in.

Bitcoin Accelerationism is about embracing this reality. No force on earth can stop an idea whose time has come.

We will not apologize, reconsider, slow down, or reverse course. Instead,

ACCELERATE.

Joined CNBC last night for a few minutes to talk #bitcoin https://m.primal.net/HWSb.mov

Before MicroStrategy had announced its bitcoin strategy.

Now who’s ready for the FASB crypto accounting rule change. Corporates arriving in 2024.

Talk of ETF approval misses the forest for the trees. It's not just about immediate reactions or flows

It's about the recognition of $BTC as an institutional asset. Pensions, endowments, insurance investment portfolios, etc., will soon be entering the arena with passive buy-side flows for the long term.

In December 2020, Mass Mutual invested $100m into bitcoin. https://t.co/xdMyT7Dxxi

MASSIVE.... except not really. Mass Mutual manage $235b in assets, with long-dated fiat liabilities. https://tinyurl.com/yz3b4hpn

$100m of $BTC is a ~0.05% allocation...

Large institutional investors don't purchase something to flip it the next month. They are constructing portfolios for multiple decades.

A 0.05% allocation is just the start. There are many more many more Mass Mutuals out there, and all of these allocators are staring at their bond portfolio which is -50% from ATHs, questioning previous assumptions they held.

The endorsement by the likes of Larry Fink isn't a sign that Larry is suddenly a bitcoin bull, it's a sign that clients are knocking on BlackRock's door, asking for a vehicle to gain exposure.

The narrative violations are strong. Passive accumulation starting from the $69k ATH has you +45% right now on your bitcoin position. The same passive allocation into long bonds has you -12%.

"But the volatility!" Again, it's a misunderstanding of time horizon. A ~1% allocation to an asset that they don't plan to liquidate for years/decades, with an extremely strong sharpe ratio, is within their risk profile. If you want proof, just look at the rest of their portfolio...

• No, the orange coin is not going away.
• No, it did not die when FTX collapsed.
• Yes, supply is more tightly held than ever before.
• Yes, perpetual credit expansion of the fiat monetary system is an ongoing reality.
• No, there is no sense of fiscal austerity present ANYWHERE.
• Yes, this illiquidity means marginal flows into the market sends the price higher, which is why all of these institutions will start with a tiny ~0.05% stake, while continuing to passively allocate steadily for the long-term.

Reinforcing this all is the shift in narrative and negative bias around 'energy usage' and mining, evidenced by new academic papers on mining as a tool for balancing the grid and monetizing waste energy:

• Bitcoin could support renewable energy development, Cornell Engineering, https://t.co/EZopJJAM2i

• Leveraging Bitcoin Miners as Flexible Load Resources for Power System Stability and Efficiency, Co-authored by former ERCOT CEO, https://t.co/PEpGE65la1

• From Mining to Mitigation: How Bitcoin Can Support Renewable Energy Development and Climate Action, ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, https://www.resistance.money/research/mining_to_mitigation.pdf

The landscape and profile of the asset has shifted. It's not about the ETF, it's about the reason WHY the ETF is coming. Institutional exposure has been given a green light. It won't happen all at once, but understand the shift that is underway.

Bitcoin has been passively accumulated by individuals and retail for sometime now, while institutions mostly watched the madness from the sideline. This is changing.

Welcome.

The new Primal iOS app is super slick. Well done.

#Bitcoin #BitVM https://m.primal.net/HPoo.png https://m.primal.net/HPor.jpg https://m.primal.net/HPoq.png https://m.primal.net/HPot.png

good morning

ACCELERATE https://m.primal.net/HPgj.png

Thoroughly enjoyed joining

on his podcast once again.

We talked about AI, bleeding fixed income, the $BTC market, paper gold vs BTC derivatives, implications of a potential ETF, BitVM, and other exciting developments in the #bitcoin space.

Link: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/dylan-leclair-bitcoin-market-overview/

Have fun becoming poor https://m.primal.net/HNEq.png

You'll often see charts or visuals illustrating the depreciation of the $USD over time, normalized to $1.00, of which I occasionally share myself.

However, there's an important caveat: these visuals rarely account for short-term yields. Displayed below is the purchasing power of $1, adjusting for annual CPI inflation (in red) versus the purchasing power of $1 accounting for 1-year Treasury yields less annual CPI inflation (in blue), starting from 1962

Notice anything?

The purchasing power of $1 from 1962 to the present equates to $1.85 when accounting for 1-year Treasury yields and inflation. Meanwhile, adjusting for inflation alone leaves you with just $0.10 of purchasing power.

Quite the massive difference.

However, there's more nuance to consider:

1. Let's separate the data into distinct eras,

From 1962 to start of 2009:

• Average annual inflation: 4.40%
• Average 1y yields: 6.22%
• Average difference: +1.82% Real gains in purchasing power.

From 2009 to Present:

• Average annual inflation: 2.34%
• Average 1y yields: 1.00%
• Average difference: -1.34% Real losses in purchasing power.

2. The data doesn't include the 1940s where financial repression massively devalued the USD to erode real debt burdens (the data I quickly threw together only went back to 1962) in the post war period.

3. Why 2009 for the change in eras? What has changed? If the U.S. can just pay a nominally higher yield than the inflation rate in perpetuity, are the fiat doomers really just delusional?

In my view:

• Positive real yields can be sustained with a clean balance sheet. It's feasible for the government to pay creditors a positive real interest rate when real debt burdens are low, demographics are booming, and the global GDP is exploding as the world industrializes.

• With Debt to GDP meaningfully > 100% and other tailwinds reversing, this is no longer the case. Post GFC and the introduction of ZIRP + QE to facilitate "growth", has the positive real yield era behind us, at least until real debt burdens have been eroded - which will take either explosive real growth, or a steady dose of inflation above yields, debasing creditors in the process.

The Bottom Line: The reality is that the average/median American individual or family often doesn't have much disposable income to capture such yields. The ones that do, benefit; and the ones that don't are the ones that pay for it.

When you look at charts showing record wealth disparity, or are wondering why the political landscape is more polarized than ever, keep this chart in mind.

Fiat inflation didn't bother the investor class from for forty years as yields outpaced inflation. Currency devaluation wasn't felt in the slightest by this cohort, they didn't just escape the devaluation, but outpaced it significantly.

Now, with Debt to GDP levels domestically and globally near record levels, expect the post 2009 dynamic to continue into the future on a longer time frame. Don't let the current tightening cycle fool you as to what must occur.

Inflation > Yields, over a sustained period of time, is the only way global governments can mask their insolvency.

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk. https://m.primal.net/HLGc.png

I said the the free market will solve the "security budget" and crypto twitter lost its collective mind. Amazing.

I said the the free market will solve the "security budget" and crypto twitter lost its collective mind. Amazing.

Unmask the backers of the social media censorship regime and you find racketeering under the guise of hate speech.

It's not mass incompetence, far from it, it's malice.

Now expand this to all mainstream media, higher education, politics, etc. and you'll have clown world figured out.

Going live with

in ~30 minutes at 2pm EST. https://www.youtube.com/@CitadelDispatch

Pump the token you printed from thin air with only a billion of derivative open interest; create tens of billions of value.

It's relatively easy too, you have proprietary info on the only liquid spot and derivatives market it trades on at the time. Futures collateralized with stablecoins and the token itself, pump it.

+4,000% in one year. $100+ billion in market cap. Your share, a mirage worth nearly $50b, materializes a mere four years after the ICO. A treasure and a trap, you enable your users to collateralize against it. Encourage this, and of course encourage them to also keep buying, this thing won't simply just support itself.

How do you capitalize? Well, first off, do NOT sell anything, that'd be too risky, as there are no natural buyers in size, you are the market. Instead, think of other ways to leverage your near immortal levels of newfound wealth, where you won't damage the exchange rate. Your own platform enables this, of course.

Access to billions of dollars of fiat flows, an international banking network, and a stablecoin issued in your name—which you even manage to rehypothecate by the billion—gives you plenty of tools at your disposal.

Your biggest competitor, who attempted to mirror your model, goes down in flames, their bluff called, with the world watching. A win at first, you shortly realize the move backfires. Regulators start circling, a precedent has been set.

Fiat rails and banking relationships get cut. Your stablecoin is ordered to wind down, and jurisdiction by jurisdiction your platform is ordered to cease. Volatility and volumes dwindle, further thinning the air.

Depleted of fiat, with most of your wealth tied to a 'Hotel California' asset that you can never sell hanging above multi-year support, you do and say anything to keep the confidence game alive.https://m.primal.net/HJqJ.png https://m.primal.net/HJqK.png https://m.primal.net/HJqL.png https://m.primal.net/HJqM.png

Disinflation is Here, What Could It Mean?

Long form post:

1. Disinflation is in motion. Sufficiently tight Fed policy is doing it's job, as evidenced by 1m & 3m annualized sticky CPI decelerating meaningfully. Focus from market participants should be shifted from inflation to the reality of the tightest monetary policy in fifteen years. (see chat #1)

2. High inflation, particularly in the core basket (ex. food & energy) masked the effects of the fastest tightening cycle in history - a tight labor market fueled the flames for higher wages, second half of the inflationary impulse wasn't energy driven, it was instead fueled by wages in a tight labor market.

3. Real yields (using both trailing 12m inflation and forward expectations) are the highest they have been in decades. This isn't the 1980s, debt levels don't allow for sufficiently positive real yields for long before things start to deteriorate. (chart #1)

4. Take a look at previous Fed tightening & cutting cycles. There is a reason that much of the pain in equity markets is felt after the Fed starts cutting. Is the Fed causing distress by lowering interest rates? Obviously not, they are merely attempting to ease the pain from the second and third order effects of sufficiently tight monetary policy.

Look at when 2y yields topped in previous cycles (2y yields are essentially a proxy for the blended average of the next two years of Fed Funds) - look at what follows for equity markets/the real economy historically (chart #2)

5. Disconnect between bond markets and equity markets is large and growing by the day. It's understandable that equity earnings would be in favor relative to bonds during an inflationary regime due to pricing power advantage of equities, but with disinflation now underway, the growing divergence between equity multiples & real yields can no longer be ignored. This can also be seen through the equity risk premium (equities yields - bond yields, chart #3).

6. In equity markets in particular, the FOMO is real, with the latest round of buyers being lots of long only funds caught offside sitting in cash and plenty of retail from what I can see. 2021 bubble favorites are so back.

7. Looking at what's fueling strong earnings surprises and a resilient U.S. consumer, look partially to excess savings. COVID-era fiscal stimulus remains in the coffers of U.S. consumers, but the distribution of those excess saving is key to monitor. (chart #4)

“We estimate that the top income quintile currently holds just over 80% of excess savings. The 0-20% and 20-40% quintiles have already depleted their excess savings balances, while the 40-60% quintile will likely follow in the next month or so.” - BNP Paribas

With consumer savings running dry for all but the upper class, expect the resilient consumer of late to begin to feel some stress, with student debt obligations restarting at the same time as excess savings running dry, with possible/expected labor market weakness on the horizon as well.

8. Final Point:

I've admittedly been pleasantly surprised by the strength of the U.S. economy and the equity markets in particular so far in 2023.

The recent bull parade, especially following the cool CPI print this week, has been especially interesting to see. Meme stonks are back, Nvidia is the new Tesla, and shorting vol is once again a path to infinite riches, all is right in the world...

In the midst of it all however, I cannot escape the thought that some of the recent celebrations and fist pumping may be a bit premature.

If history is to serve as any sort of precedent, the cycle is far from over, as the fun doesn't even begin until the Fed starts to cut rates... https://m.primal.net/HGSB.png https://m.primal.net/HGSC.png https://m.primal.net/HGSD.png https://m.primal.net/HGSE.png

I lost braincells on crypto twitter today.

The amount of Stockholm syndrome displayed on the timeline today on Crypto twitter was truly a sight to behold.

The writing has BEEN on the wall. These people are clueless.

Enough. https://void.cat/d/Bcr26ByjjcCbYsnC5yunFt.webp

I will be building this for NOSTR too. Give me a few weeks or so. https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_dd7108a762a0a62c31e3aeed3d8f1e7bf2bb1f82c0c8c36f7077ab9347f54c7f.jpeg

Great listen on the COVID fraud. https://www.youtube.com/live/lY90DUWBwss?feature=share

How do I enable zaps? I am out of the loop.

What’s the best NOSTR platform for a MacBook user?

🟠💊

⚡️ test lnbc10u1p3aernppp5n6ezjwzu98yv6n7f6lqnzkqud56xee3pajc5rl997s7pvlrw059sdq423jhxarfdenjqnn0wd68ycqzpgxqyz5vqsp5evyxysljm7vh329ks56x8hmrff9afzjfs5tz3n62ltkg44xu3x3s9qyyssq7tv5sh3ms9gakvmnd3kxpz6v7swe9lgjr4lwevu3us59zgwfmy09yluy9q97u07t2hj2e8r84myv4shcr7dyygvzjax64xhrpyk052gpyztw5k

What are the best paid relay services?

Signal to noise ratio on here compared to twitter is insane.

What’s the future of relays look like? Are there incentives to run NOSTR relays for any reasons other than altruism? I’m trying to understand the model if this is to scale up by multiple orders of magnitude.

Early days… this is exciting. 🔥👀

op return https://mempool.space/tx/7f59271b2afb3bbf2b3aa38fd07f14e4f129169fa8d489e8557ade048dfd6806 

Its a little clunky, but encrypted lightning enabled social media is very promising. 

Bitcoin nostr poppin off

https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1605273979639439363?s=20&t=hji_-qs1bqcA1rycgfucqA

yo #[0]  

dylan leclair checking in