HERE'S WHEN THE ECONOMIC DATA MAY START SHOWING THE TARIFF IMPACT
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✍️ Morgan Stanley chief global economist Seth Carpenter discusses the impact of President Trump's tariffs on the US economy, expecting to see effects in inflation data and economic growth in the next few months.
👉 Tariffs have a lagged effect on the economy, typically taking 3-4 months to show up in inflation data and 2-3 quarters to affect economic growth. 👉 The auto industry is an exception, with larger firms absorbing costs and waiting to see the outcome of tariffs. 👉 Inflation data is expected to show increases in tariff-sensitive categories for the next several months. 👉 The economy is expected to experience a big drag in the fourth quarter due to tariffs and immigration restrictions.
-- #SethCarpenter #economy
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