Let me paint a picture for you all. 🎨🖌️
It is December 2024. After only running for a month shy of 16 years, the #Bitcoin network has broken through the massive psychological barrier of $100,000 #USD.
#Bitcoiners who adopted the asset early decide that this is probably a good place to "take some profits off the table".
…but the price keeps grinding higher.
12 months later, #BTC has been absolutely ripping & is trading near $500K. Those who sold at $100K are kicking themselves & punching air for fumbling the bag. They said they were "in it for the tech", but they were lying to themselves & exited the second the price got appealing enough.
Larry Fink & the value investor crowd have purchased the capitulated coins & they aren't selling. President #Trump has enacted the #USGovernment #StrategicBitcoinReserve.
does a pitchdeck convincing the #Microsoft board members that they need #Bitcoin on their balance sheet. #Apple sees this & immediately perk up because they can't risk underperforming one of their main competitors.
Game theory is heating up.
Flash forward to the Great Crypto Winter of 2027. The ~$500K psychological level was too strong & #BTC has been getting hammered for over a year now. The price has fallen all the way back down to the ~$100K level. Everyone who stayed in the asset is in absolute shambles. It's 2 years later & their portfolio has almost completely roundtripped from the celebratory moment when $100K first broke. "Fuck this shit" they say & decide to take the few percent profit they still have instead of risking being underwater.
#Apple, #Google, #Microsoft & all other top 10 companies see this as a perfect entry point; they basically got gifted a 2-year time machine to undo their past mistakes. They will not make the same mistake again.
It is now mid-2029. Bitcoin has spent the past 1.5 years ripping all the way from the ~$100K bear market bottom & has now broken the $1M barrier. Lots of early adopters will think "Holy shit, this is it; I am finally a millionaire!" & decide to take profit in order to concrete/celebrate their newly-achieved social status.
6 months later, Bitcoin has doubled & is now trading at ~$2M per coin. The sellers from 6 months ago hear this news & immediately begin shadowboxing their past selves.
It is now EOY 2031. The bear market has been particularly brutal & sees the largest unrealized nominal losses in human history. Everything is on fire. The drop from ~$2M to ~$500K has completely wiped out last cycle's #FOMO entrants. Businesses go bankrupt. Homes get repossessed. People are jumping out of windows. The streets run red with the blood of the bulls. It has never been more over than it is now.
#Brazil, #Russia, #India, #China, #SouthAfrica & the other #BRICS nations announce that they have been quietly filling their #BTC reserves by printing money & intentionally sending their currencies to zero. This news reverberates worldwide & puts all other countries on notice.
Two more years have now passed. It is late 2033 & Bitcoin is trading confidently at ~$8M, looking like it wants to smash the coveted $10M barrier. Bitcoin is colloquially referred to by its sub-units now & #sats are the de facto standard for global commerce. People are only just now figuring out the cyclical pattern of Bitcoin & are looking for all possible methods to arbitrage other things in order to procure more Bitcoin.
The bear market of 2034 catches everyone off guard. So many entities are looking to arbitrage & buy the dip that everyone is front-running each other. This time there is only a 40-50% correction since the massive uptick in global demand is instantly eating all coins in the orderbooks. People start to notice this trend & are more reluctant than ever to part ways with their precious sats. The market finds a floor at ~$5M per coin in 2035.
NOBODY SEES WHAT COMES NEXT.
The year is now 2037. At first, the cycle seems to be performing similarly to every prior cycle, grinding its way slowly to the top of the logarithmic channel that has always bound it. The cycle "tops out" at $21M for one Bitcoin.
…but the price keeps grinding higher.
"What? How can this be? What am I missing here? Something's broken."
These are the thoughts simultaneously racing through the minds of tens of millions of people all over the globe. It hits $22M. Then $23M. $24M & $25M follow in relatively quick succession. Economic historians will look back on the moment years later & realize that the level of $21M was such a viral meme watershed moment that it broke all existing models & preconceptions; it was the moment that kicked off the S-curve.
It will take them years to even understand that the oscillating percentage of holders in profit created a baseline that converged with the point where everyone is in profit; at some point in the 2030s, there will be no more "losses". There will also be no more "taking profits" in the historical sense because there will be nothing that you can trade your Bitcoin for which is more valuable than the Bitcoin itself. People will simply #HODL & only "spend" their Bitcoin whenever they want/need something of real personal value to them. Future generations will only use Bitcoin & it will be widely accepted information that the $21M price point was the moment in history when the global/universal target price became infinity. Everything on planet Earth that had no utility was being liquidated with haste in order to accrue small quantities of sats.
Housing, metals & all other commodities are completely stripped of their speculative value & returned to their utility value, making life more affordable & enjoyable for all of humanity. Technological innovations will explode at a pace never imaginable before. People now (for the first time in human history) had access to a method of storing their time & energy spent on this planet in a durable, portable & immutable manner; the fruits of their labor would never spoil again. They were free to go where they were treated best. Prices always fell over the course of each lifetime. They were free to escape all forms of oppression with all of their wealth intact.
The price continues to grind upward with no dips, in an unprecedented display of economic dominance. Nobody can seem to explain why this is happening, but the reason is because the fear has completely evaporated from the asset, while the greed has slowly morphed into raw faith & optimism. It has concreted itself permanently as the apex asset; a perfect money which can never be challenged. All of the commodity & asset charts are completely consumed by an economic black hole so dense that all value on Earth is absorbed by its ever-expanding event horizon; the exact self-fulfilling prophecy the Bitcoin network's creator alluded to a mere 2 weeks after the initial launch of the network.
After the $100M mark, $1 will not be able to buy you 1 sat. This point will officially mark the failure of the centuries-long #fiat experiment & Bitcoin becomes the economic denominator; everything is priced in sats.
In the span of a few decades, the entire incentive structure of humanity will have pivoted from greed, consumption, corruption, violence & destructive extraction, to one of service, collaboration, truth, peace & additive value.
And all of this was set in motion by a single person.
Thank you #Satoshi. 🤝