The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is projecting 5.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is projecting 5.1% annualized real growth for Q3. Strongest quarter since the end of 2021.

Worth discounting though. Inventories are adding roughly two percentage points to that headline. Strip those out along with trade and government and private domestic final demand is still growing at ~4.7%. Real, but not as explosive as the top line suggests.

Zoom in further and the picture gets more complicated. Credit card balances hit $1.263 trillion. 12.92% of outstanding balances are 90+ days delinquent. Real hourly earnings are down 0.3% year over year. The saving rate is 3%.

But it's not all deterioration either. New serious delinquencies have stabilized around 6.97%. Real disposable income rose 0.4% in July while spending was flat. Revolving credit growth actually slowed. People are stretched, not collapsing.

The question isn't whether growth is real. It's whether it's reaching the people who need it most.

This is where bitcoin comes in. You don't need the economy to fall apart for bitcoin to make sense. You just need to ask what happens to your surplus when the money it sits in can be expanded to accommodate a government that refuses to live within its means.

Stronger growth helps the fiscal picture. It doesn't mean Washington suddenly found spending discipline.

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