Sina 21st

A summary of my views on $MSTR

Out in public

Either way you won't get hype from me

Our analysis of where Bitcoin is right now given the macro landscape and on-chain dynamics, emailed today to subscribers (link: https://21stcapital.com/bi/). https://m.primal.net/Pnws.jpg

Bitcoin Intelligence is going live on Monday.

What is it?

A full Bitcoin analytics platform:

• Bitcoin Models & Charts
• Written & Video Reports

What does it cover?

• Macroeconomic Updates
• On-Chain Analysis
• Derivatives
• Price Action

Sign up here: https://www.21stcapital.com/waitlist-bi

A guy named Josh predicted months ago that the price would reach $84K on this exact date—and it did.

Now, all of Bitcoin Twitter is swooning over him, asking for more prophecies. He’s saying that from here, we’re headed straight to the moon, all the way to $444K.

There’s a particular obsession among retail investors with predictions.

That’s why PlanB became so famous—people believed he was a prophet.

Now, they have found a new messiah.

Reminds me of last year when a very successful influencer told me: Look, the key to success on Twitter is understanding your audience. Think about the average person’s intelligence level—on social media, the kind of content they engage with always rises to the top.

DeFi platforms deliberately do not highlight the main risk of earning yield:

Your principal is at risk!

Where does the yield they offer come from? From taking risks with your own capital.

If someone understands this simple concept, they won’t lose their money in the bankruptcies of BlockFi, Celsius, Luna, Voyager, FTX and countless similar cases.

Earning yield on idle capital sounds like a great idea—until you ignore the risk to your principal.

If U.S. treasuries or a bank—backed by the full faith of law, courts, and regulatory bodies—pay interest, that’s one thing. But when an unregulated coin offers yield, it’s an entirely different thing.

The real yield in DeFi is you.

Only a few days to go!

Bitcoin Intelligence is About to Launch!

Next week, we're launching Bitcoin Intelligence—the ultimate Bitcoin analytics platform you've been asking for.

It includes:

• Bitcoin data & live charts with our models (Quantile Model, VPLI, Power Law, etc.)
• Video analyses
• The Bitcoin Intelligence Report (Newsletter)

All in one dashboard.

Covering macroeconomics, on-chain data, price dynamics, and derivatives.

After two decades of data modeling, a decade of studying Bitcoin, and years of publishing Bitcoin analysis, it's time to take things to the next level.

And I’m not alone—we’re working with a team of top Bitcoin analysts to bring you the insights you deserve.

Early access is opening soon, and we’d love for you to be among the first to experience it.

Watch the short video introducing Bitcoin Intelligence, and find the waitlist link here: https://www.21stcapital.com/waitlist-bi

The Bitcoin Intelligence is About to Launch!

We have something exciting to share.

Next week, we are launching the ultimate Bitcoin analytics platform – Bitcoin Intelligence – which you have been asking for all along.

It includes:

1- Bitcoin data & live charts with our models (Quantile Model, VPLI, Power Law, etc.) 2- Video analyses 3- Newsletter: The Bitcoin Intelligence Report

All three will be accessible in one dashboard.

And it covers updates on macroeconomics, on-chain data, price dynamics, and derivatives.

After two decades of data modeling, a decade of studying Bitcoin, years of publishing Bitcoin analysis on social media, and many requests throughout last year, I am ready to take things to the next level.

And I am not alone; we will be working with a team of top Bitcoin analysts to bring you the content you deserve.

We’re soon opening early access, and we’d love for you to be among the first to experience it.

Watch a short video introducing Bitcoin Intelligence.

And find the link to the waitlist here: https://t.co/s6w6lQ9jNf

In the Javier Milei pump and dump story, one of the most interesting revelations is that Dave Portnoy (a well-known figure in online betting) knew in advance that this meme coin was going to be listed and bought in early.

The meme coin’s creator had been in close contact with him, telling him about his connection to Milei and the token launch. Portnoy himself admitted, “I bought as much as I could in the first ten minutes.” But when Milei backed out and deleted his tweet, everyone dumped, and Portnoy took a loss. Eventually, he and the coin’s creator agreed to reimburse him for his losses.

First, this fool literally confessed to insider trading on Twitter. Second, if you’re trading these kinds of things, pay attention to who you’re up against. The insiders always know when a token will launch—they’re ready to buy before you and dump before you. The game is rigged against you from the start.

Reflections on altcoins and the Bitcoin maximalist movement

Bitcoin maximalism was a reactionary movement to the unbearable magnitude of fraud and grift that existed in altcoins.

Many are prior altcoiners who got burnt and learned a hard lesson.

Most maximalists I know have no issue with tech experimentation. The issue has always been the grift of selling tokens that eventually became a casino masquerading as a software business.

And when 99% of an industry is vaporware tokens, the whole category gets rejected.

Interestingly, this intolerant minority has been proven right time and again over the last 16 years.

Every single “next bitcoin” project has failed. Many high-profile anti-maxis (e.g., Mashinsky) turned out to be actual frauds. And most alts disparaged by maxis ended up underperforming Bitcoin over time.

You may not like maxi’s who “blindly” reject the value of the whole altcoin space. But you cannot deny that people who listened to maxis were saved from numerous scams in the space. And they outperformed most altcoins too.

Maxis decided to promote only the thing they cannot print or manipulate. By doing so they closed their own door to grift. When you cannot sell a token little incentive is left for nonsense. Maxis self-selected out of the shade and stayed clean (for the most part) in a dirty industry.

That is not to say everything is cool. As maxis were proven right on many issues, grifters adopted the label maxi to appear legit but are deep down the same old. Some are using the label for marketing without really understanding what Bitcoin is. There are many that I disagree with. I am myself blocked by several big mouth maxi-marketers.

But nonetheless the only safe space in this ocean of grift and fraud is Bitcoin.

I have studied this space since 2015, and I am yet to find a truly viable and sustainable idea in the 1000’s of token that have launched since except in stablecoins.

It has always been about the tokens not the software.

It has always been about the gamble not the tech.

No one cares about the fake use case and utility. Everyone is in for the get rich quick.

In the end, it has become clear to me that alts have always been memes. Memecoins masquerading as tech.

Which are now being replaced by pure memecoins.

In the end, the honest, value-adding, positive sum, incorruptible money wins. And I am happy to have been Bitcoin-only since day one.

Are we topping here?

I see that people are equating the consolidation below $100K with the consolidation at the top of 2021

This is where having a battery of Bitcoin valuation models comes in handy.

Today is nothing like 2021. The VPLI index was at 93/100 in 2021, showing extreme overvaluation.

But today VPLI = 54, nearly neutral valuation.

Sideways price action is not a bad thing.

In a matter of 3 weeks we went from $66K to $100K.

This was too fast. Every day we stay at these prices, the floor gets stronger and more market participants “approve” these prices by transacting at those prices.

Many are taking profit because they think it is too high. Many are buying because they think it is too low.

Every single day that goes by, one more profit taker is eliminated from the market.

Soon enough, profit takers will exhausted. And we will see a strong foundation for the next leg up.

It is happening. But it takes time. Every day is progress.

"I buy altcoins to increase my Bitcoin"

All ETH-BTC gains since 2021 are erased. There is not a single person who bought & held ETH in the last 4 years and has more Bitcoin now.

Financial market weakness is visible across the world as a direct consequence of Trump's heavy tariffs.

Automakers will get decimated due to the trade war with Mexico and Canada, while tech stocks will suffer due to the AI conflict with China.

Bitcoin, as always, has been the first to react.

What do you think of my portfolio?

100% $BTC 0% $SOL 0% $ETH 0% $USDC 0% $XRP 0% $DOGE 0% $SUI 0% $HEART 0% $TRUMP 0% $MSTR

Bitcoin does not need anyone to succeed.

We need to act like it.

We only need to educate, build solutions, and make Bitcoin easier & safer to custody & transact.

Tradfi will rush to us on its own. No need to run after, cheer, or beg them.

The future is in our hands not them.

Bitcoin is the holy alliance of honesty, tech, power and wealth

It is both the will and ability to effect positive change

Last cycle, I was using my Twitter account to fight scams, and being toxic to ICOs, NFTs, and bad actors in the space. I was a lone wolf; refused to rob shoulders with anyone who was not a 100% reliable bitcoin-only pleb, which is partly why my account was so small.

This cycle, I am taking a more visible role in the space, but still ... man, I want to puke sometimes, seeing the sheer amount of compromised morality. This is largely why I still have not gone to any (=zero) conferences. $Trump coin gave me that mental nausea again.

I am only interested in true Bitcoiners who are laser-focused on fixing the money. If you are a real Bitcoiner, you are my brother, and I want to follow you.

My conversion with Jeff Park of Bitwise is out. We discuss his radical portfolio theory, why 60/40 is dead, and what should the modern portfolio include to suit the world we live in today. Very nice convo with an intelligent humble visionary.

Just got off the phone with someone involved with white house’s SBR project. We are 100% getting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve soon.

He also said all those twitter SBR predictors have no idea and just larping.

Please don’t be naive and don’t give these grifters the engagement they are begging for.

Also, no I have no idea. I have no privileged info from WH. Neither do any of the BT grifters.

When all you want is to make a buck, negativity is not tolerated

When the CEO of Bitcoin Magazine celebrates Solana memcoins and refers to WBTC on ETH as Bitcoin to spin the World Liberty Finance fiasco, it’s time for a change.

On the anniversary of the Bitcoin ETFs, let's reflect on the crazy things that happened in Bitcoin land in 2024. The sheer significance of what we witnessed :

1. Spot Bitcoin ETFs

On January 10th, the SEC approved multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs, enabling investors to gain direct exposure to Bitcoin through traditional brokerage accounts.

Since their debut, investors have collectively put more than $37 billion into spot bitcoin ETFs. Combined with the surge in bitcoin prices, that’s lifted total assets under management (AUM) in the segment to $107 billion.

The IBIT fund alone has attracted $38 billion in inflows, pushing its AUM up to $52.5 billion.

The ETF grew into a $50 billion fund faster than any ETF in history, and it also holds the record for the fastest ETF to $10 billion in AUM.

2. Price Appreciation

Bitcoin crushed the 2021 ATH and ripped to $100K

3. 180 in politics

The re-election of Donald Trump in November 2024 changed everything. Trump signaled a supportive stance toward Bitcoin, appointing pro-crypto officials. Many members of his admin are Bitcoiners or Bitcoin enthusiasts. Bitcoin is no longer the irresponsible magic internet money for the nerds. It is an asset that the president shills!

4. SEC

Gary Gensler was fired primarily because of his anti-Bitcoin policies. in essence, Bitcoin fired him.

5. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

A bill was introduced by Sen. Lummis and is strongly supported by the admin to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve.

6. Corporate Bitcoin strategies take off

Microstrategy, Semler Scientific, Meta Planet, and many more companies add to or establish their Bitcoin treasuries. After many years of Michael Saylor pitching this to the corporate world, in 2024, it finally takes off.

7. Regulated Bitcoin Options

A lively options market opens for Bitcoin ETFs, allowing individuals and institutions to exercise more sophisticated strategies.

There is more, but let's just reflect on the significance of these events .... this was just one year.

Imagine what 2025 will bring.

First Bitcoin Quants episode in 2025!!!

We are going live in a few minutes with Glassnode's @CryptoVizArt to discuss DoJ Sell Off Effect & Diminishing Market Demand on YT.

What are the best Bitcoin newsletters? what do you subscribe to and why?

21st Capital was established in 2024 with one mission:

Assisting individuals and corporations to adopt Bitcoin

We started with advising Bitcoiners on security, wallet setups, and education.

We then quickly grew into a full-service Bitcoin custody service using the most advanced Bitcoin technology. We developed our Smart Vault service, which is a multi-layer multi-sig based on miniscript that finally makes self-custody mistake-resistant and forgiving and natively supports inheritance.

We then developed an analytics arm where we studied Bitcoin data and produced a lot of quant content.

Along the way, we also spoke at numerous events, including the Bitcoin Conference Mena, and appeared on major Bitcoin podcasts.

It was monumental first year. We were so bullish on the company that we did not get investors. We did not burn a lot of someone else's cash and did not allocate a marketing budget. We built it all from scratch. In 2025, we will 10x our pace. Tune in for several new products and services. https://m.primal.net/NXwB.mp4

2025 is the year Bitcoin will reach $1M. Gradually, then suddenly. The supply is drying up. What does Saylor know that makes him buy faster now? All signs point to an explosion in Bitcoin price.

How do I know? I just made that up. It is cool and more favorable for engagement to out-bullish the last guy. That is the game. You just make stuff up and repeat. If everyone repeats it, it is a real idea.

2024 Performance of Major Asset Classes

Bitcoin 109.76% Nasdaq 31.97% Gold 26.17% S&P500 24.54% Silver 22.08% AI & Robotics 16.44% Dow Jones 12.88% Real Estate ETF 3.02% Commodities 2.5% All Bonds 1.98% 7-10Y Notes -0.08% 20+Y Bonds -7.02%

What are you experiences with Robosats.

Sounds like one can use it to easily convert Bitcoin to Amazon gift cards or fiat. Actors have to put up a bond that can be confiscated if the act in bad faith.

The gift card method is great because it is just a code you message people rather than a bank transfer.

What is not to like.

One may even start a non KYC bitcoin shop there and earn 5% premium on the KYC -> non KYC arbitrage.

There is no dollar amount anyone can put on my Bitcoin"

Just finished watching a very inspiring live interview with @ChaseYoDream247 , Ruzbeh and Momo about Chase's story of losing his Bitcoin, recovering from it, learning, and using that experience to warn people about Bitcoin security.

Chase, I hope you end up with lots more Bitcoin than you lost. I love how passionate you are about Bitcoin.

And I am so glad wemart Vault, whose main purpose is to make it impossible to lose coins due to mistakes are able to set you up on the S.

What happens when a Bitcoiner & UFC trainer loses 0.8 BTC? Resilience kicks in. 🥋💪 Join us live as Chase Chicos (@ChaseYoDream247) shares his story of loss, lessons, and redemption in Bitcoin.

10:00 Pacific 19:00 CET 22:00 UAE

Don’t miss this inspiring session! 🔥

Altcoin Daily has taken Saylor words completely out of context in the title and other reporting

He is saying that his “no ETH ETF” prediction was wrong and new administration is pro crypto

Altcoin Daily translates it to a bull Ethereum stance

Desperate.

Many are asking why is MSTR down big.

I have been clear about the possibility of Bitcoin sideways (or bear) causing a crash in the stock.

The mNAV is very sensitive to Bitcoin sentiment. So when BTC loses its upside momentum for a while, mNAV contracts.

So it outperforms both on the up side and the down side. And even in a sideways market mNAV likely contracts.

I did argue this with some MSTR investors and they were thinking the game has changed forever and MSTR will scape Bitcoin downturns. But no! That is wishful thinking.

Just keep that in mind when you invest and don’t just FOMO in. If you feel the FOMO i have a message for you:

MSTR is a machine that converts fiat to Bitcoin. Whenever it outperforms Bitcoin it is like a coiled spring that accumulates monetary energy and releases it slowly into Bitcoin itself (by diluting shares at a premium). So you will end up capturing that premium as a pure Bitcoin holder too.

The Iranian Government shuts down the fiat onramp to crypto exchanges in a hopeless attempt to stem currency collapse.

The Iranian Rial is tanking and has fallen to a new historical low of 800K:1 USD

YTD, it has depreciated by 37% against the USD.

The government had placed various limits on purchases of USD, so people switched to crypto and stablecoins to protect their life savings.

But in their latest move, the government has just closed IRR onramps to crypto exchanges (which as expected has led to an even larger currency fall).

The story of currency collapse unfolds the same way every time.

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