Uptober Starts with a Bang

History is cyclical, and as Mark Twain stated, “History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Bitcoiners know this to be nearly a rule of law, as for the past 15 years, bitcoin has operated in 4-year cycles of 3 years up in price and 1 year down in price, ebbing and flowing with every new halving event.

September 28th of last year, I published a piece titled, “Is Uptober Here?” where I discussed bullish news items relating to bitcoin and specifically the idea that the historical “Uptober” trend of bitcoin having excellent performance in the 4th quarter of the year was starting.

In hindsight, this was true. Bitcoin gained 20% off the monthly September bottom of close to $50,000 by the end of September and continued to a 10% gain in October and rocketed to a nearly 38% return in November, also where the price reached $100,000 for the very first time.

Last year, once again proved the legend of “Uptober” to be a reality.

Writing this October 2nd, I am here to say “Uptober” started with a BANG.

Credit to Bitcoin Thanos

This past week, we have seen Bitcoin dip below $110,000, yet as I sit here writing, bitcoin is over $120,000 after monster gains since calendars flipped to October.

I went to bed on Tuesday, September 30th, with a bitcoin price of around $114,000 and woke up to Bitcoin above $116,000, where it has only trended higher. These sorts of price movements once again prove the point that bitcoin follows patterns of consolidation and then rapid upward movements. We have chopped in price between $100,000 and the $115,000 range for months.

Jeff Park also pointed out that the last time bitcoin’s 90-day volatility was this low was in 2016. He posted the below tweet on September 22nd:

Low volatility in bitcoin means that “bitcoin is boring,” and sentiment showed this. The online emotions I saw were not positive. The “Fear and Greed” chart was lower than reasonably expected, considering bitcoin has been above $100,000 for seemingly months on end.

I believe what we are now seeing is the first leg in another one of these rapid upward price swings bitcoin is known for. I believe the first 2 days of October have illuminated the potential possibilities for what is to come over the remainder of the year.

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There are many indicators that bitcoin typically lags to prove this true.

Global M2:

Compared to gold:

In my eyes, everything that occurs with the price of bitcoin reinforces the idea to dollar cost average, be IN THE market, and not try to time anything.

Bitcoin has moved $10,000 in the last 2 days. If you saw the price at $109,000 and wanted to buy at $105,000, you missed the boat. This follows the historical pattern that bitcoin chops in price, and suddenly elevates I mentioned above.

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The chart below shows the best 10 return days of the year compared to the remaining 355 days. The lesson? Be in the market or risk missing out entirely.

Best 10-Day Return vs. Remaining 355-day return: (Source: Fundstrat)

The legends of Uptober and bitcoin performance in Q4 are as follows:

The best time to buy and hold bitcoin was 15 years ago. The second-best time is today. Ensure you’re able to look back on The Uptober of 2025 fondly.

Let’s see what happens.

Stack SATs.

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The views and opinions expressed here are for entertainment purposes only and should, in no way, be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research when making an investment or trading decision, as each such move involves risk. Nothing contained in this e-mail/article constitutes, or shall be construed as, an offering of financial instruments, investment advice, or recommendations of an investment strategy.