"In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033."

— Congressional Budget Office, February 2023

Welcome to the latest issue of the Bitcoin For Families newsletter. This issue digs deeper into the US debt and the Federal Government's own projections.

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A few days ago I saw a headline about how the US government had borrowed $250B USD in a single day. A single day!

That prompted me to look deeper into what is the current status of the US Federal Government debt. What I found out only made me even more determined to stack sats and I'm sharing some of the info here hoping it will help others.

The Fiscal Year 2023 deficit was bigger than expected

The Congressional Budget Office predicted a deficit of $1.4 trillion USD for 2023. The fiscal year 2023 ended on September 30th, 2023 and the reports have not been updated yet with September number so bear in mind that the actual numbers you see here for FY2023 are still missing the September expenditures.

The FY2022 had a deficit of $1.375T USD and the actuals for FY2023 up to August 30th, 2023 include a deficit of $1.524T USD. That means that, with one month still pending, the CBO projection of a deficit of $1.4T USD is off by 8.85%.

For reference, the deficit for the first 11 months of FY2022 was $946B. During the first 11 months of FY2023, we borrowed $578B more than during the first 11 months of FY2022.

If this sounds scary, let me go back to the fact that a few days ago, in a single day, we borrowed $250B USD.

The government projections are insane

Some people dismiss the warnings that Bitcoiners issue about the ridiculous debt by saying that Bitcoiners are full of conspiracies or delusional with their magical money or similar ad hominem attacks.

But what happens when it's the own government the one that tells you that the deficit will reach 200% of GDP by 2033?

After reading the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 20233 report by the Congressional Budget Office I can't stop thinking that I don't have enough Bitcoin.

And remember, this report, released in February 2023, underrepresented the actual deficit for current fiscal year by at least 8.85%. So imagine how much higher the ACTUAL deficit will be in 2033.

Here are the highlights:

• The deficit will grow by $20T USD between 2024 and 2033 reaching $52T USD
• By 2033, half of the money we borrow will be to pay interest of existing debt (bankrupt anyone?)
• Net interest on the debt will reach $3.6T. To put the number into perspective, the Federal Outlays for 2033 is projected to be $6.6T USD. The interest on the debt will be equal to 54% of the expenditures!

The chart below is meant to reassure you: on your conviction on Bitcoin.

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Notable notes

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See you again next week! — Alejandro

This newsletter is for educational purposes. It does not represent financial advice. Do your own research before buying Bitcoin.