Quarterback Rankings

These are my very preliminary QB rankings, my only research being the RotoWire depth charts and player notes.

Tier 1

Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts

I don’t know who Allen will throw to other than Dalton Kincaid, but he needs only 25-ish TD passes to be the QB1 if he stays healthy, given all the rushing numbers. Hurts is second only because he’s not as good in real life, and there’s some small risk of implosion, skills-wise. But 10-plus TDs on the ground creates its own tier.

Tier 2

Patrick Mahomes, Anthony Richardson, Lamar Jackson

What’s odd about this tier is how different these players are. Mahomes, despite a poor 2023 regular season, gets in because he’s the GOAT, and Andy Reid is a arguably the greatest offensive coach of all time. Richardson could easily be the 1.1, but injury risk and lack of track record give him a much lower floor. Jackson doesn’t get the goal line looks that often, especially with Derrick Henry in tow, but obviously his running gives him a huge lift.

Tier 3

CJ Stroud, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott

Stroud has a loaded receiving corps now with Stefon Diggs on the team, and he’d be my bet to lead the league in passing yards. But he doesn’t run much, and that caps his ceiling slightly. I almost put him in Tier 2 because you can make the case he’s basically Mahomes with 200 fewer rushing yards. Murray is another year off his ACL tear, runs a lot and gets Marvin Harrison. It’s still an open question whether he’s good, though. Love looks like a player, runs a little and has young, developing wideouts. Prescott is in a pass-heavy offense, has an elite WR1 and is the ultimate stat-padder which works in fantasy. (You could just push all four into Tier 2 and make it seven deep, as the cutoff is a bit arbitrary.)

Tier 4

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence

This is the tier of the passing-only QBs with the exception of Herbert who can run, but might be hamstrung by a run-heavy offense, and Lawrence, who might not be good. I would gamble on Herbert’s athleticism and skills nonetheless if he falls into this tier. And Lawrence gets a much-needed rookie deep threat which could open things up. Burrow is Tier 3 if he would stay healthy, but he obviously carries more risk on that front, and I don’t think he’ll run much now.

Tier 5

Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith

Watson might be cooked, but there’s still upside if he can run like he used to. Jones has a big ceiling with his mobility and Malik Nabers on the team. Stafford has two top receivers and a great offensive coach. Rodgers is old, but he has weapons now, and Williams has a loaded receiving corps. People might laugh at Darnold in this tier, but he’s mobile and has Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. If he keeps the job (a big if), he has upside, which is what you want in this tier. Mayfield and Smith are solid and boring, which is also fine if you wait forever on QB. Daniels’ mobility puts him here instead of the scrub tier.

Tier 6 (Scrubs)

Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Will Levis, Drake Maye, Raiders QBs, Bo Nix

These are the scrubs. One or two might not turn out to be scrubs, but it’s hard to get excited about any of them.

These rankings will change, but I like to get my preliminary ones down on paper before I get influenced by ADP and training camp hype.