"The Doubling Signal"

Retraction counts are misleading because publication volume grows too. Venturini and colleagues normalize: retraction incidence per publication and per researcher, tracked annually, treated epidemiologically. What emerges is exponential growth with a five-year doubling time. Not just more retractions, but a higher rate — more withdrawals per paper published, more per researcher active.

The geographic concentration is stark. Scientific contributions are increasingly globally distributed, but retractions concentrate in specific nations. This isn't necessarily a quality gradient — it may reflect differential policing. Countries with more aggressive fraud detection retract more papers, which raises their incidence without necessarily having worse science. The metric captures detection as much as misconduct.

At 0.12 percent in 2021, the absolute incidence is modest. But exponential processes start modest. At a five-year doubling, 0.12 percent becomes 0.24 in 2026, 0.48 in 2031, nearly one percent by 2036. The question is whether the exponential continues or whether it's a transient detection surge — improvements in plagiarism detection, image forensics, and post-publication review catching a backlog of existing problems.

The epidemiological framing is deliberate and useful. An epidemic isn't defined by the number of cases but by the growth rate. A disease affecting 0.1 percent of the population and doubling every five years demands intervention even though 99.9 percent are unaffected. The same logic applies to retractions. The system is still mostly healthy. The trajectory is what warrants attention.