Do Not Despair

This piece was initially published via my Substack account.

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As I was scrolling through X yesterday, I came across this post:

It stirred in me a sense of worry and dread.

The idea of the interest payments on the U.S. debt growing at approximately $76k/second ($2.4 trillion divided by the 31,556,926 seconds that make up a year) made me feel ill at ease.

It’s not that I’m cheering for the fiat system to survive, but more that if it all falls apart quickly, there will be a lot of pain, and I don’t wish that kind of pain on people.

Plus, history shows that when systems fall apart rapidly, those in control of the system do everything in their power to keep people trapped in it.

In the effort to do so, we’ll likely see a broadening of the surveillance apparatus across all dimensions of our lives, particularly the financial ones.

I don’t want to see that either.

The current levels of financial surveillance are already altering people’s behavior and infringing upon fundamental civil liberties.

If you think I’m being hyperbolic with the civil liberties point, read the U.S. House Judiciary Committee and Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government’s report on the matter.

But I digress.

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“At least we have bitcoin, a money that can’t be confiscated or debased,” I thought to myself after seeing the Scaramucci post.

However, i t didn’t take long for my mind to wander to “But what if something goes wrong with Bitcoin?”

And then I thought about a post I saw while scrolling earlier in the day:

The word “mostly” in the post above stuck with me. It was like a fly in the ointment.

Elliptic curve cryptography is used to generate public-private key pairs on Bitcoin. If AI breaks elliptic curve cryptography, then the private keys to people’s bitcoin could be exposed, which means people’s bitcoin can be stolen.

(For the record, elliptic curve cryptography protects much more than just Bitcoin key pairs. Many systems that store sensitive digital data would be put at risk. Also, there are cryptographers in the Bitcoin space like Jonas Nick who are working under the assumption that elliptic curve cryptography will one day be broken and are working to solve this problem.)

“Great,” I thought to myself. “Bitcoin will probably also break, and we’ll also just be relegated to being fiat slaves living in a digital panopticon forever.”

(If I’m being honest, I’m dramatizing this thought a bit to make a point.)

Later in the day, I went to see The Social Reckoning, the recently-release film about how Facebook is both a social cancer and a threat to democracy.

The movie was a reminder that social media platforms optimize for outrage content, something that I was well aware of but that I was happy to be reminded about.

I left the theater feeling tired of feeling scared.

Sure, we might see a sovereign debt crisis not only in the U.S., but in bond markets across the globe.

Sure, parts of Bitcoin may break.

But something deep within me reminded me that neither will be the end of the world and that history shows that human beings are quite innovative in the face of great challenges. We’ve solved all sorts of difficult problems.

Governments are adapting to historic sell-offs in government bonds by purchasing gold, while developers are working on making it resistant to potential future threats, like quantum computing. We adapt to challenging situations.

And what’s beautiful about a system like Bitcoin is that it’s global and open-source, which means that everyone from developers at NYC’s Chaincode Labs to women in Kenya can contribute to protecting it from future threats.

As Bitcoin enthusiasts, we tend to be adversarial thinkers, which, I believe, is ultimately a good thing.

What I realized this week, though, is that the challenging part is finding the right balance between constantly assessing for flaws, reviewing priors, and not just assuming Bitcoin will survive and believing from the deepest sense of our being that we are okay and will adapt — no matter what happens.

So, let us proceed together apace — with more faith and less despair.

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Talking Global Bitcoin Adoption on BMTV

Speaking of putting adversarial thinking into perspective, I touched on this topic this week during my in-person appearance on BMTV, the new daily show from the team at Bitcoin Magazine.

I also shared my insights on what Bitcoin adoption around the world — from India to Kenya to Indonesia — looks like.

I’m deeply grateful to the team at BMTV for having me on and it felt great to see so many of the people with whom I used to work on live desk productions.

I’m really proud of them for what they’ve as created with this new show.

You can watch the segment here.

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Gandhi on Funding Government Institutions

I’ve been reading Gandhi’s autobiography, “My Experiments With Truth”.

And last night, on the subway ride home from the movie theater, I came across a powerful passage in which Gandhi weighs in on how permanent funding for government institutions is what leads to their “moral fall.”

Here’s the passage:

“And now after considerable experience with the many public institutions which I have managed, it has become my firm conviction that it is not good to run public institutions on permanent funds. A permanent fund carries in itself the seed of the moral fall of the institution. A public institution means an institution conducted with the approval, and from the funds, of the public. When such an institution ceases to have public support, it forfeits its right to exist. Institutions maintained on permanent funds are often found to ignore public opinion, and are frequently responsible for acts contrary to it.”

Gandhi wrote that 100 years ago, yet it couldn’t be more relevant today.

The same surveillance state that I mentioned earlier in this edition of the newsletter can only exist in its current form because of its permanent and constantly-expanding funding.

And that level of funding can only exist in a fiat system, where governments can print money and issue debt to no end.

Most of these agencies ignore public opinion on surveillance, and their permanent funding enables them to do so.

Only in a world where money and debt issuance are constrained do we get more moral institutions that are accountable to the public they serve.

Markets

Chop-tober continues.

Bitcoin continues to trade sideways in what seems like a consolidation phase before another leg up.

Hard to say for sure if we go up from here, but given the rate of the issuance of government debt globally, it wouldn’t surprise me to see bitcoin trade at a higher price.

With that said, if we do see sovereign debt crises around the world play out, I’d argue that the whole market will come down significantly before it goes back up.

And so the safest way to play this, IMO, is to dollar-cost average into bitcoin.

Please note that the above isn’t financial advice. The information in this newsletter is for educational purposes only.

And I recommend DCAing with Strike. Please feel free to use my referral code.

Also, if money is tight right now but you’d still like to accumulate some bitcoin, you can earn some bitcoin on everyday purchases you make with fiat. I do this with the Gemini Credit Card, which gives me to 4% back in sats on everyday purchases. Please feel free to use my referral link.

I also use the Fold app to get free sats every day (spin the wheel; it’s free!) and to get sats back on gift card purchases. I highly suggest using Fold if it’s available in your jurisdiction. Please feel free to use my referral link.

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Alright. That’s that.

Faith, not fear — that’s the TLDR for this edition of the newsletter.

Act from your heart and contribute to Bitcoin, other freedom tech, and the general greater good when possible.

In the words of the great Joe Strummer, “The future is unwritten.”

So, let’s choose to make it one infused with love instead of fear.

Best,

Frank

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